Despite an urgent need for increasing economic reforms in Vietnam, the impending change of leadership gives scant reason to hope that anything radical is in the offing.
For the past decade, the Government has tried to strike a balance between economic modernisation and the old communist ideology.
It is an uncomfortable compromise, and despite the strides made in recent years, the hidebound bureaucracy of the regime and the reluctance to tackle fundamental issues such as state trading monopolies has slowed down the pace of reform. If the signs are reliable in a country with a complex and shadowy system, the men tipped to replace the old guard are likely to carry on the present policies. Deputy Prime Minister Phan Van Khai, who is expected to replace Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, is a reformist.
The unknown quantity is Lieutenant-General Le Kha Phieu, widely expected to take over as party chief in place of the 80-year-old communist leader Do Muoi. Lieutenant-General Phieu is one of the army's key men and recent internal speeches he has made indicate that he is as committed to strengthening the party organisation as he is to economic reform.
The last 10 years of modernisation have been relatively easy. Some difficult decisions lie ahead. The World Bank is pressurising the Government to reform the state sector, there is a widening gulf between rich and poor, and there is little choice but to speed the economic liberalisation of the country.
The key issue, agreed both inside and outside the country, is to energise the reforms. Unless the private sector is strengthened, Vietnam risks falling behind its neighbours. The situation will improve if the reins of the party are loosened, and a start is made in tackling corruption and bureaucracy.