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Why the big splurge must wait

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CAN a government have too much money? Should Hong Kong have a tax holiday? Should public spending be dramatically revised? Should taxes be cut substantially? With the transition from British to Chinese rule, expectations are high that the community should share part of the massive wealth inherited by the Special Administrative Region.

Some say the Government does not need $320 billion in the kitty. Others consider it a sheer waste to lock up hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves. The consensus appears to be: spend it.

But, if those who advocate this course take a step back and appraise the future more carefully, perhaps they will be more cautious about running down reserves.

True, over the years the Government has been highly successful in building up Hong Kong's wealth. But, with the new challenges ahead, the question is being asked: is it in Hong Kong's best interests to preserve its present strong financial cushion? In the 13 years since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, except for the small deficit recorded in the 1995-96 financial year, Hong Kong has been showered with almost endless surpluses.

By March this year, its fiscal reserves had reached an impressive $163 billion. The SAR Land Fund - which transfers to general revenue on July 1 - has almost exactly the same amount.

But that is not all. In this year's medium-range Budget forecasts, Financial Secretary Sir Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has predicted Hong Kong will still be heading for a period of high surpluses. From 1997-98 to 2000-01, Hong Kong's ever-growing wealth is expected to snowball to $418 billion.

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