Although Mr Chan has resolutely refused to say why he quit - it is now understood to have been a number of reasons - his colleagues expect him to take up a plum post in the private sector.

The speculation over successors to the top two posts in the Government was the only bright side to an uninspired shuffling of the deck. It included some disastrous choices, and was reminiscent of some of former Governor Lord Wilson's lame-duck reshuffles.

It cast doubts whether Governor Mr Chris Patten will ever build a top-calibre team around him. Shaken by Mr Chan's decision, and anxious to avoid further antagonising the civil service at a time of political uncertainty, he refrained from wielding the axe - even where it would have been deserved.

Instead, Secretary for Recreation and Culture Mr James So Yiu-cho has been left to muddle on, and continue making a fiasco out of cable television. Worse still, media-shy Transport Secretary Mr Michael Leung Man-kin was moved into the front line with the education and manpower portfolio.

The Governor, as he has since his arrival, plumped for the choices put to him by Sir David. British cabinet ministers rarely interfere with civil service appointments, however bad they may be, and Mr Patten is following the trend.

But in some cases he had no option. With front-runner Mr Chan out of the picture, the field of candidates for the Secretary for the Civil Service shrunk to one: the Secretary for Economic Services, Mrs Anson Chan Fang On-sang. SUDDENLY, it also made her the front-runner to become the next Chief Secretary in the eyes of many commentators.

But appearances can be deceptive. Sir David will have to leave by late this year if he is to take up the post he wants, as head of the Hongkong Government in London and the territory's ''ambassador'' to Europe.

Sir David shows little inclination to hang around longer, despite talk of him staying on until 1994.

That means his successor will have to be designated within the next six months, perhaps even earlier, in order to allow a reasonable grooming period.

With the Governor insisting the new Chief Secretary must be a local officer, the field is limited.

While Mrs Chan might seem the obvious choice, moving her into the sensitive civil service portfolio in April, only to move her out again later in the year, would be highly unsettling to already anxious civil servants.

But there are also questions over the only other leading contender for the job, the Secretary for Constitutional Affairs, Mr Michael Sze Cho-cheung. Some senior Government officials say privately they would rather resign than work under him.

It means Mr Chan's departure has made the race to be Sir David's successor more of a mystery. Meanwhile, the dropping of Mr Yeung from Mr Macleod's side, largely because he is too old to stay on beyond 1997, was part of a move to make space for youngermen who could take top jobs in the Special Administrative Region Government.

One example is the highly-ambitious Director-General of Trade, Mr Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, who received his long-overdue promotion to the upper ranks of the Government by becoming the new Treasury Secretary.

The flamboyant and bow-tied Mr Tsang is a different character to the grey Mr Macleod, who blocked his appointment to another post last autumn - which will hardly make for an easy working relationship. AND, with the surprise elevation of another rising star, Mr Gordon Siu Kwing-chue, to become Secretary for Economic Services, as well as the prior choice of Mr Joseph Yam Chi-kwong to head the Monetary Authority, Mr Macleod is becoming hemmed in by potential candidates for his job.

Mrs Chan is another contender, although she has the disadvantage of being unlikely to stay beyond 1997.

The Financial Secretary may not want to go yet. He said yesterday he expects to present ''many more Budgets''. But some colleagues maintain he could be gone by autumn 1994, making last week's Budget his penultimate - and by 1995 at the latest.

Whenever it is, Mr Macleod is surrounded by contenders for his crown, even if they vigorously disclaim any such ambitions. And that will hardly make for harmonious working relationships in the Government's money-handling portfolios over the coming months.

It also means the Financial Secretary may have more to worry about than reaction to last week's Budget.