The general who won't roll over

Whatever is said about General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, he is a survivor. In the past few days, the Thai prime minister has been portrayed as a thick-lipped rural buffoon, a dung heap in a suit and, without any firm evidence, an Alzheimer's victim. Just yesterday Thai newspaper headlines asked of the Premier: 'Stupid or sick?' But somehow he has made it through. A week of fierce middle-class protest and economic and political crisis has failed to unseat him or his coalition cronies - all Thai politicians from the old school. The battles are set to begin anew as he prepares for elections that could now take place within three months. Those expecting a rash of bold new policy initiatives or clear leadership to beat Thailand's economic woes are likely to be disappointed. Those who know the general well say that is not his style and he is unlikely to change despite the pressures on a man known to be deeply superstitious. The last time he showed some open leadership and vowed to take a personal hand to the state of the economy, the markets crashed. General Chavalit has so far proved to be a man of his time. He represents the ultimate product of a system, soon to change, that has never required politicians in Thailand to stand for anything in particular, other than the ability to forge and hold power. That ability was shown in abundance during the past few days. The 65-year-old former commander of Thailand's army did not bother himself with public displays of leadership. In fact he said very little at all. At one point he walked up to a group of reporters at Government House and merely hummed along to a tune all on his own. He stuck to what he knew - back room compromise and survival in between plenty of rounds of golf, of course. Somehow, he managed to forge a deal with his increasingly powerful coalition rival General Chatichai Choonhavan and cobble together a revamped cabinet approved by King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Friday night. Those who know him well described his performance as 'classic Chavalit'. 'You may not know what his views are or what he is thinking, but he cannot be underestimated,' one confidant said. Supporters add that while the hatred builds among Bangkok's hard hit new rich, General Chavalit is still respected by the poor and in the voter-heavy rural northeast. Once a Thai military analyst described him as a 'master of disguise'. Certainly he is going to have to come up with a pretty good one to have any chance of survival long term. If those skills were on show last week, they have been built up over a long career. General Chavalit rose to be the commander of Thailand's army after a military career which never saw him in command of a regiment. Instead, he was said to excel at strategy and staff matters and was a key architect of a policy to bring outlawed communist rebels into the legal fold in 1980. He spent time on Thailand's sensitive borders with Burma, Cambodia and Laos and forged ties with senior Burmese general Than Shwe and the Khmer Rouge and even their arch enemy Hun Sen. He built a close relationship with then Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanond who ruled unelected from 1980 to 1988 - when Thailand's boom took-off. With considerable wealth and an influential military life behind him, politics beckoned. It is said General Chavalit tuned down the top military post of Supreme Commander to form his New Aspiration Party in 1990. His policies and values were always vague. He built respect as a moderate by opposing the coup which sparked the pro-democracy demonstrations and bloodshed of Black May in 1992. Later, however, he left the Democrat-led government and drove a wedge in popular electoral reforms. Then last year, he slipped out from the coalition of Prime Minister Banharn Silpa-archa and took in a host of the disgraced leader's allies to forge a workable majority with General Chatichai's Chart Pattana party. While General Chavalit is said to place great stock in military tradition, General Chatichai favours loud Hawaiian shirts. He is remembered for a free-spending premiership marked by his love of fast motorbikes, big cigars and discos. Like General Chavalit, he is hard to define politically. General Chatichai was deposed in Thailand's last coup amid military allegations he and a group of cronies became 'unusually rich' in power. None of the charges were made to stick but General Chatichai, now 77, is said to be keen at another crack at power to erase the bitterness of his past tenure. Several others tarred with a corruption brush remain in the cabinet. The two leaders' private battles last week could be both men's last hurrah. The election they face will in theory be held under new terms defined in a far-reaching constitution. The document is geared to ending the vote buying and patronage that have greased the political wheels for decades. And with a string of new regulations and institutions, it is expected to wipe away the power base of traditional politicians. Both New Aspiration and Chart Pattana spent heavily during the last election in November last year, labelled the dirtiest in history. A Thai Farmers Bank study estimated about US$800 million (about HK$6.18 billion) was spent in just 45 days, much of it in the rural northeast, home to three times as many voters as Bangkok. As recession bites, it is suggested that sort of money is no longer sloshing through the political system. It is certainly no longer in the pockets of General Chavalit's key opponents, Bangkok's wounded young rich. At the weekend hundreds gathered for their own bonfire of the vanities, a fire-sale of repossessed Mercedes Benz cars, Rolex watches and designer furniture in a back street off Sukhumvit Road, the capital's main thoroughfare. All sales were cash-only, usually brokered through a third party to save embarrassment. Hatred for General Chavalit shrouded every deal. 'It's just terrible,' said Supradit, a 35-year-old interior designer looking for a bargain basement gift for her socialite boyfriend. 'We are reduced to this and he is still up there, clinging to power.'