Cost of take-off

For months, the Airport Authority and the Government have stated with absolute confidence that the new airport will open on time next April, even if the rail link is not completed until June. MTR officials have said privately they do not believe the airport will be ready on schedule, so they see no point in spending the estimated $1 billion required to finish the railway ahead of the current timetable. But airport spokesmen remained adamant.

Now, suddenly, the airport is said to be reassessing the impact of a postponement. A final decision will not be taken until next month, but it is admitted that delay would allow the airport to open in better shape.

It is hard to identify what, if anything, has changed so dramatically in the few days since the last confident assurance that the airport would open on time. Certainly, the slump in tourist traffic will have some impact in reducing the cost of delay. However that will have been factored in well in advance of the latest outbreak of cold feet.

Perhaps, indeed, nothing has changed. It is too early to tell if the change of tone, apparently from within the Airport Authority, is intended to prepare the ground for an admission that the work will not be finished on time - or whether pressure is being applied on the Government and the MTR to spend whatever it takes to finish the railway by April.

If the warnings are genuine, the public must be given some detailed figures on the likely cost to the economy of delay, compared with the cost of speeding up the work on the MTR and the cost of finding alternative transport if the two facilities do not open simultaneously. There must also be some indication of the compensation that would be paid to commercial franchise-holders and service suppliers for a two-month delay in the start of business at Chek Lap Kok.

Unofficial estimates of the cost of delay range from $1 billion in lost revenue over two months cited by Airport Authority member Peter Wong King-keung this weekend to $1.5 billion a month in lost tourism and business spending, landing fees and other revenue cited by the Sunday Morning Post in July.