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Secret plans drafted to battle spread of virus as Tung denies officials were

The next 10 days or so will be crucial in the fight against the bird flu virus, government sources said yesterday.

As the slaughter of more than 1.4 million birds was completed, the sources pledged quick action if the virus spread to other poultry.

One official said they had formulated four scenarios after the first case of bird flu in May: The first was for an isolated case; The second envisaged a 'cluster of cases' which was also quickly over; The third was for a situation where there were hundreds of cases, but the outbreak was contained; and The last, and worst, scenario was for the disease to become a world epidemic.

'If there is an outbreak, it will spread around the world in one to two months,' she said. 'I believe we are now at the second scenario, but the next 10 days will be crucial.' Test results from 400 samples taken from poultry on Monday, during the first day of the mass cull, will be available next Tuesday. Initial results on pigeons showed that none had the virus, she said.

'If no more new cases are found in the next two weeks, we can say the first cluster of cases is over.' Work would then continue to trace the origin of the virus and its development.

'At present, we will stick to our earlier assessment that the efficiency of the human-to-human transmission is weak,' she said.

The Government had already formulated comprehensive plans, but had decided not to disclose details to avoid causing panic.

Details would be given to Provisional Legislative Council members next week. It is understood places which attracted large crowds would be closed if no vaccine was ready to battle a massive outbreak of bird flu.

The contingency plan and the mass slaughter of 1.4 million poultry are expected to be part of a special H5N1 briefing by health and agriculture officials to Executive Councillors tomorrow.

Deputy Director of Health Dr Paul Saw Thian-aun said the Government would decide this month whether to produce the vaccine, depending on factors like the possibility of human-to-human transmission.

But he said mass production would take at least five to six months to prepare.

Dr Saw told Provisional Legislators yesterday that the contingency plan has been prepared to cope with a scenario where bird flu developed into an epidemic, but no vaccine was available.

'Under such a plan, we would have to depend on the use of amantadine in the treatment of cases,' he said.

He said guidelines on the management of cases would be issued to public and private doctors.

'There would also be arrangements for the mobilisation and re-deployment of health care workers to cope with the emergency; and the closure of places where crowds might congregate,' said Dr Saw.

After visiting the Cheung Sha Wan Poultry Market yesterday, Tung Chee-hwa denied swifter action could have been taken to deal with the crisis, saying it only became clear over Christmas how many Hong Kong chickens had become infected with H5N1.

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