The north European ferry industry is set to develop even more radically in the next three to five years, a report by London-based Ocean Shipping Consultants says.
However, there are several major implications for the industry, including the reshaping of the political map in the Baltic, the expansion of the European Union, the construction of fixed road and rail links and the planned abolition of duty-free and tax-free sales of goods on board ferries in EU countries.
The 202-page report analyses the Baltic, English Channel, North Sea and Irish Sea ferry markets up to 2005. It also covers regional markets and market shares, routes, operators, shipyards and ports.
'The large number of changes which are expected to impinge on the ferry market create an uncertain prospect for its future development,' the report said.
'Nevertheless, it is clear that traffic volumes will undergo several significant, one-off reductions in the near future because of the new fixed links and probable phasing-out of duty-free and tax-free status for on-board sales.' The report said the remaining market should continue to grow over the medium to long term, citing increasing leisure travel and continued growth in foreign trade.
Even if the duty-free and tax-free sales were continued, Baltic ferry passenger volumes would decline by 20 per cent by 2000 as ferries would be replaced by people crossing the waterways by bridges and tunnels.
