Nothing so muddles analysts as the state of the mainland economy. While insulated from Asia's financial crisis, months of falling retail prices, slow monetary growth and stagnating consumer spending seemingly contradicts the official line of 8 per cent growth.
Everyone seems to agree that, Zhu Rongji, when confirmed premier, must give demand a shot of adrenalin.
But with a restructuring of state-owned firms under way, unemployment rising and exports slowing, a new engine of growth needs to be found.
Mainland statistics are notoriously unreliable. Only the most credulous take the official 8 per cent growth figure seriously. Clearly, proximate indicators such as inflation and monetary growth point to an economic slowdown.
What's more, treating the mainland as a single economic entity is wrong - the northeast is manifestly in recession while Guangdong province is growing.
Infrastructure spending has been suggested as the great pump priming hope to increase economic activity. Yet, in last week's budget announcement there was some surprise when planned capital spending from central government coffers actually fell 6.9 per cent.
