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Trade growth defies forecasts

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When currency devaluations rocked Asia last October, many Hong Kong-owned Guangdong-based manufacturers expressed alarm over the likely impact that cheapening Southeast Asian exports would have on their businesses.

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Some larger companies responded by relocating part of their production overseas to factories in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Others that could not do likewise projected significant losses for their mainland-based operations.

Even the Guangzhou municipal government, citing expected competition from Southeast Asian manufacturers, in February forecast exports of shoes and textiles this year would tumble between 20 per cent and 30 per cent.

However, in an unexpected turn of events, Guangdong province has reported strong trade growth for the first two months this year. Foreign trade for January and February was US$18.21 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 19.3 per cent.

The Guangdong Customs Office said exports rose 22.5 per cent in the period, to US$11.01 billion. Exports of garments and accessories rose 11.7 per cent to US$1.74 billion, while exports of shoes grew 14.8 per cent to US$740 million.

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Realised foreign direct investment gained unexpected strength in the period, reaching US$1.75 billion, representing 24.9 per cent growth over the same time last year. Newly contracted investment also increased, to US$1.43 billion, up 14.9 per cent.

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