Is the outcome of the first election of the SAR legislature a foregone conclusion? Most journalists and indeed many of the candidates seem to think so.
One need look no further than the election forum held by ATV Home television channel last Saturday. The forum for the Kowloon East constituency was attended by two rival camps: Szeto Wah, Fred Li Wah-ming and Mak Hoi-wah of the Democratic Party; and Chan Yuen-han, Kwok Bit-chun and Lam Man-fai of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB).
Ideally, such a forum would provide the perfect opportunity for all the candidates to introduce themselves to the electorate. It would also give them the chance to publicise their personal beliefs. But this is not how things turned out.
The hour-long question-and-answer session was dominated by Messrs Szeto and Li and Ms Chan - the candidates tipped as the most likely winners.
If this had been intended as a forum for the trio, it would have been fine. But as an interchange supposedly for all six candidates, it was less than satisfactory.
To his credit, Mr Mak did make some effort to chip in, but Ms Chan's partners were virtually silent.
Potential voters and political observers must have found themselves wondering why the DAB pair were there at all. Have they got views? Are they really participating in the elections whole-heartedly? Why did they not try to speak up more? Why didn't Ms Chan leave them more of a chance to get across their views? Perhaps the party knows Ms Chan is going to win and hopes her strength will spill over to carry a second member to victory. Making Ms Chan the only speaker is likely to have been a hardheaded calculation based on how the list system works - that victory or defeat in all of the constituencies really depends on the performance of the star candidates; the other seats will be won or lost on their coat-tails.