Take a look at those who are elected on May 24 and you'll see some familiar faces. In fact, in the geographical constituencies you'll probably see almost nothing but familiar faces.
Of the 20 directly elected legislators, at least 19 are likely to be former members of the provisional legislature or the pre-handover Legislative Council. The situation will be similar in the functional constituencies, where seven sitting members have already been returned unopposed. In the Election Committee, most successful candidates are expected to be former members of the provisional legislature.
Many reasons have been given for the popular apathy towards the May 24 polls, and no doubt a number of factors are at work. But one cause must be that it is hard to get too excited about elections which will simply result in the same old names being elected once again.
This was not previously a problem. The 1991 elections brought many new politicians to the fore, such as the then almost unknown James To Kun-sun, now a key figure in the Democratic Party. The 1995 polls also brought in fresh faces, and not just among the democratic camp, with the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong's Chan Yuen-han becoming a legislator for the first time.
This election is likely to be different. The only new blood among the directly elected members is likely to be The Frontier's Cyd Ho Sau-lan, Emily Lau Wai-hing's running-mate in New Territories East. Even Ms Ho is only filling a slot that was reserved for another ex-legislator, unionist Leung Yiu-chung, until he chose to stand elsewhere instead.
Much of the blame for this likely lack of new faces is being pinned on the switch to a list variant of proportional representation, which gives the parties a larger say in who is elected by deciding the crucial ranking of candidates on their lists. It also makes it difficult for less well-known figures to pull off the unexpected victories they achieved in 1991 and 1995.