Pollsters yesterday promised swift answers on why they failed to forecast the high election turnout and made flawed predictions of several results.
Most opinion polls forecast a turnout of 30 to 35 per cent, far below the final figure of 53 per cent. A late poll by the University of Hong Kong's Social Science Research Centre predicted a 40 per cent turnout.
'We have to be honest and admit we all got it wrong,' said pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu of the University of Hong Kong. 'Every pollster must now conduct a postmortem. If we can't come up with acceptable reasons within a month or two, we'll all lose out.' Asian Commercial Research (ACR) managing director David Bottomley said the errors were more serious than those which discredited British pollsters after they badly misjudged the result of the 1992 general election. He promised preliminary answers within a fortnight.
Pollsters say the problem is that many people say they will vote but then do not. Surveys find more than 80 per cent of respondents claim they will vote and have to use statistical models to reduce this to a realistic level. These worked in the 1995 elections but went wrong this time.
There was also criticism of the pollsters from The Frontier's Emily Lau Wai-hing, who topped the ballot in New Territories East.
'Some of them have been badly discredited by this,' she said yesterday. 'They must review their methods, otherwise they will lose all credibility.' Polls by ACR and the University of Hong Kong consistently showed Ms Lau trailing the Democratic Party.