A turnaround in Japan's economy will not be enough to start a broader recovery across Asia, according to Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Japanese economist Robert Feldman. Mr Feldman said Japan's recovery was some way off which complicated efforts to predict its influence on the rest of Asia. 'I don't believe Japanese growth will turn positive any time soon,' he said, forecasting modest gross domestic product growth of 0.8 per cent next year. The new government's latest fiscal package would help in the fight against private demand downturn but would not defeat it, Mr Feldman said. There were three potential routes to a Japanese economic turnaround, he said. The first was via a resurgence of imports from the region, he said. However, with intra-regional trade at a virtual standstill and unlikely to improve in the medium term, such a prospect was unlikely, Mr Feldman said. Second, a domestic recovery in Japan could be achieved through reforms in the financial sector. Again, this seemed a distant possibility, with scepticism high about the political will of the government while its reform bill had yet to be passed by the lower house. The third route to a Japanese upswing - a reversal in the yen-US dollar trading trend - was also remote, Mr Feldman said. He warned the yen would fall to 150 against the dollar during the next three months and could slip to 155 within six months. It could easily stay at this level for a sustained period, with investors not tempted by the Japanese currency until it touched the 155 to 160 level. 'At that point, domestic investors say 'dollars are too expensive and I'm not going to buy them',' Mr Feldman said. A positive development is the return of bargain-hunters in the Japanese property market. 'There are a lot of foreigners who want to put money into Japan at the moment. Tokyo is crawling with investment bankers,' Mr Feldman said. However, he said there were impediments such as Japan's complex property ownership laws and fears of organised crime in the property market.