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Apocalypse now, answers later

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PREPARING FOR THE 21ST CENTURY By Paul Kennedy (HarperCollins, $250) NEVER mind the 21st century for the moment; this book would be better titled The Rise and Fall of Paul Kennedy . His progress to this sad pass has curiously echoed that of the legendary Faust.

Only six years ago Mr Kennedy was a poor but honest scholar (so far as poverty can be said to exist at Yale University) labouring in worthy obscurity at the finer details of diplomatic history.

Let us make the charitable assumption that no Mephistopheles slipped in through his study window to whisper the suggestion which eventually became the bestseller The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers .

Let us suppose that Mr Kennedy threw that splendid book together as a break from the boring details of the Washington Naval Treaties and was astonished by its world-wide success.

The question then arises, what does he do next? How are you going to keep them down on the farm, now that they've seen Paree? asked the old song, and Mr Kennedy has seen Paree.

He has been lionised, interviewed, guest lectured, televisioned, and celebrated. He is worth several thousand dollars a pop on the speaking circuit. He reviews for publications like The New York Times which unlike the Transactions of the Royal HistoricalSociety are read by real people.

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