Advertisement

Attacks not about fundamentals but greed

Reading Time:2 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
0

Donald Tsang and his team could not have detailed their market intervention strategy in advance if they were serious about success. His team includes very intelligent, highly experienced people who have excellent contacts. Their understanding of Hong Kong and the world market economics is as detailed as any 29-year-old, MBA-toting, Wall Street hedge-fund player. Let's at least give them the benefit of having thought through their actions very carefully.

The game played by speculators is merely about transferring cash from Hong Kong pockets - such as the Government's, the stockholders', the financial institutions' - to the pockets of big overseas financial market players. It is not about economic fundamentals. Rather than sending a division of Marines to take Hong Kong's wealth, they can do it by using features of the so-called free-market system - lowering the market by borrowing stocks, reselling at lower prices, forcing the market down further by speculating on the currency and profiting through instruments like HSI futures.

In Malaysia and other countries they have been successful in forcing asset prices down below break-up values - well below any necessary fundamentals-based correction level. They profit all the way as they know the outcome of their market power in advance.

We cannot complain about fundamentals-based market adjustments, such as the drop in our super-inflated property market over the past year.

But we do have the right to defend ownership of our companies, our independence and jobs from outright financial war. Unlike some less fortunate targets, over the years Hong Kong has used sound economics and politics to build a strong defence arsenal - exchange reserves, the central government in Beijing's support of our peg and the wealth of the Hong Kong community.

Mr Tsang and our government would not have started this fight unless they knew we out-gunned the opposition in available assets. A major principle of the 'free market' system that Hong Kong has championed for so long is to ensure assets are properly valued - prices reflect their true worth. If aggressors are using features of this market system for purposes other than for which the market is 'designed' - mere wealth transfer independent of economic reality - surely it is a sovereign government's job to step in and take defensive action? We would expect as much in the event of a military attack.

Advertisement