THE crucial indicator of a return to normality in the shipping industry will be the rate of scrapping during the rest of the 1990s, says Mr Garry Beaumont, Lloyd's Register's chief ship surveyor and director.
He said until recently annual scrapping rates averaged 2.2 million gross registered tonnes (grt) but the overall rate more than doubled in 1992, with the scrapping of large ships dominating this change.
''The capacity of the world fleet grew steadily from 403 million grt in 1988 to 444 million grt in 1992, with large tankers providing the greater part of this increase,'' Mr Beaumont said.
At the same time the average age of tanker and bulk carrier fleets steadily increased, he said in Lloyd's Register's 1992 annual report.
Regarding the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Unified Enhanced Survey Requirements, Mr Beaumont said this requirement would be tightly enforced on the quality of old tankers and bulk carriers.
IACS has advised the International Maritime Organisation of its intentions of self regulation.
''The associated increase in the required forward planning of the surveys and structural maintenance will command the attention of owners in 1993,'' Mr Beaumont said.