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Christine Chan

A leading mainland government think-tank has forecast a better economic environment in the fourth quarter than the third.

 Officials of the State Information Centre said in Hong Kong yesterday that Beijing's reflationary measures were taking effect, with the third quarter's fixed-asset investment rising rapidly over the same period last year.

 Beijing has counted on efforts to boost domestic demand and infrastructure spending to achieve the projected 8 per cent economic growth for the full year.

 State Information Centre vice-president Xu Zhanghe said the mainland was well on track to achieve the projected 8 per cent economic target, judging by the prospects of stronger economic growth in the fourth quarter.

 Gross domestic product grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter.

 According to Premier Zhu Rongji, the economy would need to grow 10.4 per cent in the last quarter to meet the economic growth goal.

 Adding to the improving last quarter, Mr Xu said the trade surplus would keep up its strength in the rest of the year.

 'We expect trade surplus to register steady growth in the fourth quarter, thanks to government efforts to boost foreign trade,' Mr Xu said.

 In the first three quarters, the trade surplus continued its rising trend, hitting US$35.3 billion, up 15 per cent over the same period last year.

 The only worrying sign was a slowdown in exports, according to Mr Xu.

 'Mainland exports bore the brunt of the region's financial turmoil,' he said.

 Exports plummeted 6.7 per cent last month - their biggest monthly decline since the outbreak of the crisis.

 The prospect is not encouraging, because an expected slowdown in the United States and European economies could further slow exports next year.

 Mr Xu refused to comment on the possibility of another interest-rate cut, although a mainland newspaper quoted officials as saying the mainland's central bank would maintain the present interest-rate level in the fourth quarter.



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Think-tank foresees brighter quarter after exports slump