The mainland devaluation rumour has surfaced again but this time with a little more substance to the argument than earlier.
Some commentators are now making the case that capital outflow from the mainland is rising fast and, even with an almost record trade surplus, this could push the balance of payments into deficit next year, which would undoubtedly put the currency under some strain.
They say it is happening because foreign banks are pulling out money as a result of a corporate debt crisis brought on by the financial troubles of the international trust and investment corporations (Itics).
The key measure the commentators look at is the mainland's foreign reserves which, as the first chart shows, have remained virtually static since late 1997 despite the upward push they should have had from the trade surplus. It implies the money is pouring out as rapidly through one spigot as it is pouring in through another.
But first a word of warning. The data is uncertain. The mainland has published its balance of payments only up to the end of 1997 and, without full figures, it's a long jump from trade surpluses and reserve movements to conclude that foreign banks are now running for the exits.
For one thing, the 1997 data already indicates that a good portion of this supposed capital outflow is no such thing. It is actually income debit, a current account item, and it comes mostly from interest payments on foreign debt. This amounted to an outflow of US$19 billion and was equivalent to 41 per cent of the trade surplus.