EVEN before the referendum votes are fully counted, Russian President Mr Boris Yeltsin seems to have won an unexpectedly convincing display of public support for him and his policies. The final tally in the weekend referendum is not expected before May 5, and there may yet be some surprises in store from more remote areas, but early official results and polls of voters taken after they had cast their ballots tell the same story: of the 68 million people who voted, a big majority expressed confidence inMr Yeltsin.
A high percentage - 58 per cent according to one projection - also voted in favour of his economic reform package. Polls said about 70 per cent favoured new parliamentary elections.
That much is positive for Mr Yeltsin and for the course of democratic development in Russia. The negative in a show of public support designed to bolster him in his confrontation with an obstructive parliament is that he did not win enough votes to forceearly elections. The referendum rules said that half the 105 million eligible voters must vote in favour of early elections to make them an automatic reality. Hardliners in the communist-dominated Congress of People's Deputies can be counted on to resist the reformers.
Using the same tactics as China adopts to disparage Hongkong's low-turnout elections, the opposition is claiming the poll shows public support for Mr Yeltsin is only about 30 per cent, with almost two-thirds of the population either voting against him ornot voting at all. Such a result would be considered a landslide in the West, but an argument based on the workings of democratic electoral systems is not one which suits Mr Yeltsin's enemies.
The President has won a moral victory but moral victories do not confer power. It is far from certain he can give his win practical expression by forcing a reluctant parliament to accept a new constitution.
He is in no position to dissolve the parliament and has ruled out the use of force to drive it out of town. If he did use force, it would be at the expense of the new moral authority he has just won. Yet he has few alternative ways to impose fresh elections.