The mainland will have to import 40 per cent of its oil by 2010 because domestic production cannot keep pace with demand.
In addition, it must diversify its sources of supply to avoid dependence on oil from the Middle East, which is perceived to be controlled by the United States.
That was the conclusion of a detailed forecast of the country's oil needs published yesterday in the China Economic Times, which had profound implications for national diplomacy and foreign exchange reserves.
The mainland became a net importer of all oil products in 1993 and a net importer of crude in 1996. Last year, it imported 27.32 million tonnes of crude and 21.74 million tonnes of oil products, against exports of 15.6 million and 4.36 million respectively.
The Middle East was its biggest supplier, accounting for about half of imports, followed by the Asia-Pacific region and Africa. In 1997, the mainland imported oil from Argentine, Iraq and Norway for the first time.
By next year, the gap between supply and demand will reach 34 million to 45 million tonnes, rising to 117 million to 142 million tonnes in 2010 when imports would account for 40 per cent of demand.
This forecast was predicated on an average annual gross domestic product growth of 7 per cent and the assumption that oil production would not rise dramatically, with big fields in the north and northeast having peaked, while new fields in the west and offshore had high exploration, development and transport costs.
