Discouraging though it is to see the jobless total rising to another record, a breakdown of the 6.3 per cent figure does show small but significant signs that an improvement is under way.
It could well be next summer before unemployment figures peak and then start to fall, or there is an improvement in the trade figures worth celebrating. Many major employers still believe, like outgoing General Chamber of Commerce chairman Peter Sutch, that the SAR has lost its competitive edge and faces more painful adjustment if it hopes to regain lost ground.
But the improvement in tourist arrivals is heartening. Figures have continued rising for nine consecutive months, with 861,347 visitors last month giving a boost to the hotel industry, which is now recording occupancy rates averaging 81 per cent. More tourists means brighter prospects for the retail and restaurant sector, badly hit by the drop in consumer spending. But economic statistics are unavoidably some way behind the real story, so it is fair to assume that the worst, at least, might be almost over.
Businesses which have coped best are those which were able to adjust to the new dynamics brought about by deflation. Department stores which promote value for money rather than designer labels and luxury goods are in tune with customer demands.
Restaurants that trim prices and run special promotions are the ones that keep tables filled. The downward trend in property prices has slowed but has yet to reach realistic levels. The commercial sector has a long way to go before it looks attractive to foreign companies seeking an Asian base. The cost of living here is way above the rest of the region, and rents remain among the most expensive in the world.
A 700,000-job boost for the construction industry will bring more money into circulation, but Hong Kong is still hostage to fortune in Asia as well as the vagaries of the US economy, where doomsayers constantly predict a rise in interest rates, and consequently a setback for regional recovery. Nothing the Government can do will stave off problems of that kind, but that does not mean it can stop seeking ways to stimulate the economy.
