After the constant barrage of predictions portending Y2K-induced global economic recessions, epic disasters and all-round chaos we've been subjected to over the past year or so, it's nice to float gently back to reality. With fewer than 200 days left to 2000, a remarkable calm seems to have descended upon the Y2K cognoscenti. These days the millennium bug is increasingly perceived as a surmountable problem. So what has brought about this growing optimism? It's probably a cocktail of factors. Most government and large organisations already have the problem fixed - at least for mission-critical operations. Many corporations have already started their 1999/2000 financial years and have planned and budgeted into 2000 without financial applications turning figures into gobbledygook. Contingency plans are also, by and large, in place. So far, no major Y2K-related disasters have been reported. This might be a good time, if it isn't too late already, to pull out of those Y2K stocks in your investment portfolio. Tony Keyes, author of The Year 2000 Computer Crisis: An Investor's Survival Guide, has made this revision to a previous position: 'I no longer believe that Y2K companies represent a good investment opportunity. This market theme has never developed the way we thought it would.' Individuals who have ploughed money into the stocks of companies - such as Mastech Corp and Complete Business Solutions - that provide Y2K fixes might be wishing they'd invested in over-valued Internet plays instead. Corporations have spent and many continue to spend money on the problem but arguably the biggest beneficiaries of the year 2000 problem have been the hardware and software vendors as companies replace old, non-compliant business applications. Mr Keyes highlights several factors that have meant Y2K consulting companies haven't seen the kind of revenue growth they expected. Chief among them is the fact that 90 per cent of Fortune 500 companies have kept Y2K fixing in-house. Mr Keyes believes that Y2K experts will be in demand in the months after the date change actually takes place but he thinks the long-term outlook is bleak. The Y2K-solution business, it seems, has no more upside.
