Governor downbeat over MFN
GOVERNOR Mr Chris Patten returns to Hongkong today with a downbeat assessment of the chances of China escaping US trade sanctions and a warning that Beijing will be on trial for the next month.
He said the run-up to the June 3 deadline on the mainland's Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trading status would be critical to the future of Sino-US relations.
But Mr Patten conceded: ''It's unlikely that the policy of this [the US] administration on trade with China is going to be identical to the policy of the last administration.'' And he said: ''Almost the most important factor for Hongkong's long-term success, stability and prosperity is the state of the relationship between China and the United States.'' Speaking soon before he left New York, Mr Patten hinted for the first time that he might have failed in his attempt to persuade US President Mr Bill Clinton to renew China's MFN status unconditionally.
Referring to this week's Beijing mission by Assistant US Secretary of State Mr Winston Lord, the Governor said: ''There's clearly going to be some hard talking between the administration and Chinese officials.'' Mr Patten said all he could be sure of was that Hongkong's interests ''will be one of the factors'' considered in any decision on MFN.
He emphasised the widespread concern in Washington over China's human rights record and arms sales, noting he had been ''a little surprised at the number of times this has been raised with me''.
''I think there's clearly a lot of worry about weapons proliferation,'' he said. ''What will be decisive is the extent to which the administration thinks that China is moving on those issues.'' Mr Lord's visit is seen as the last chance for Beijing to make concessions that will avert conditions being attached to MFN, and Mr Patten said he hoped it would be successful.
But he stressed the domestic pressures pushing Mr Clinton towards conditional renewal: ''He's got to take account of feelings in a predominantly Democratic Congress, he's got to take account of feelings in the country and a number of organisations which are pressing him on, for example, human rights cases.
''He has to take account of what he's told about weapons proliferation and the impact on a very sensitive situation in the Middle East.'' Without specifically mentioning MFN, Mr Patten indicated he understood US demands that renewal be linked to an opening of China's markets.
''That is using trade in a trade dispute or trade argument, it is not using trade in a discussion of politics,'' he said.
''You do need to stand up to people sometimes on trade issues. If you have in a bilateral relationship particular concerns . . . then you're perfectly entitled to take specific trade measures to cope with that, and we've seen the US doing that in a number of its trading relationships around the world.'' Mr Patten said he hoped Beijing would appreciate his lobbying work in the US, and follow his example in separating politics from trade issues.
''I expect to get back from the effort rather greater belief on the part of Chinese officials that I do what I say I'll do,'' he said.
His comments came as British officials in London said Hongkong was benefitting from China's concern over MFN renewal, and that Beijing's anxiety to avoid providing fresh ammunition for its US critics would hasten a settlement of all outstanding issues.
Senior British Government sources said they believed all current problems could be resolved, including the deadlock over the Chek Lap Kok airport project.
The optimistic assessment is understood to be shared by Chinese Ambassador to London Mr Ma Yuzhen, who is reported to have said all these problems would be settled ''soon''.
A Whitehall official said it was clear there would be a fourth round of Sino-British negotiations on political reform, following the third round scheduled for May 21-23 in Beijing.
And he said the long-delayed meeting between British Foreign Secretary Mr Douglas Hurd and his Chinese counterpart, Mr Qian Qichen, could be held as early as this month.
London believed the meeting would lead to progress in resolving the airport deadlock, he said, following a recent series of encouraging signals from Beijing on the issue.
This new mood is in stark contrast to assessments by the same British officials a few weeks ago, and reflects a belief that ''realists'' in Beijing have taken over from hard-line elements in the negotiations.
