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Yuan steady

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There was good news on Chinese exports this week. They surged for a second month, up 7.5 per cent in July over the same period last year.

That was far more than expected. It was also a clear sign this vital economic sector appears well on the road to recovery, even without the yuan devaluation many so-called experts like to portray as essential.

But yesterday saw signs that this encouraging trend has not yet spread to the rest of the economy. The growth rate for fixed asset investment plunged while deflation continues. Unemployment also continues to rise.

These trends will only embolden those who make their living talking up devaluation. They have been predicting one for two years and want to avoid being proved wrong.

That does not necessarily mean they know much about the subject. One popular story in the financial markets this week is that China will devalue on October 1, to mark the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic. Such predictions speak volumes about the ignorance of those who make them.

Instead of being taken as a mark of a more open society, Beijing's increased willingness to tolerate a public debate on the issue is portrayed as supposed proof that devaluation is a certainty.

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