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SCMP Reporter

Last Thursday, unionist Lee Cheuk-yan led a group of familiar faces demonstrating outside Government Headquarters.

 This time it was the opening stage of a bombardment aimed at, what they call, Tung Chee-hwa's 'draconian policy address'.

 If the protests did not catch much media attention, it was not because the community is happy with the first two years of rule under Mr Tung.

 Quite the contrary. Opinion polls show support ratings for the Chief Executive and government performance are still low. With three months to go before the new millennium, there are economic uncertainties marked by mixed and conflicting signals, deep social grievances and looming anxieties about freedoms.

 As neighbouring countries bounce back from financial turmoil, there is still a big question mark over Hong Kong and its path to recovery.

 Among all this gloom and doom, the public is not holding out high expectations of Mr Tung's upcoming policy address to be delivered to the Legislative Council on October 6, his third since taking office 27 months ago.

 Now many see the visionary ideas in his two previous policy blueprints as hardly relevant to their daily lives. They are unable to picture the Hong Kong in the short-, medium- and long-term future that was outlined in Mr Tung's pledges and policies.

 Nor have they a clear idea of how Hong Kong can rebuild as an economic powerhouse in the next century. In spite of the high-sounding initiatives in a wide range of social and economic areas, the community is as yet unable to see 'a Hong Kong that is civilised, prosperous, stable and democratic, filled with a new vitality' - Mr Tung's promise of two years ago.

 Privately, a senior official agreed that one important task for the Chief Executive is to establish a clearer direction for economic restructuring in his next blueprint. And he should outline steps to achieve it.

 The official admitted, however, that external circumstances were still volatile. The administration is keeping its fingers crossed on China's entry into the World Trade Organisation, which he said would bring about fundamental changes to Hong Kong's economy.

 A close adviser to Mr Tung, who preferred anonymity, was more optimistic. 'The situation will settle down in three to six months' time. There will then be a clear picture of how we move forward.

 'We are now in an adjustment period after the economic turmoil. There are many new ideas and things going on at the same time. I think what Mr Tung will do is to put it all in a wider perspective.

 'There might not be new gimmicks and exciting initiatives. Yes, the public might feel disappointed. The Government needs to do a better public relations job to explain it to the community,' said the adviser.

 There was no shortage of far-sighted and bold plans in Mr Tung's two previous policy addresses.

 In his 1997 blueprint, 'Building Hong Kong For a New Era,' he delivered a multi-billion-dollar package to address chronic livelihood issues and take the first steps to help Hong Kong compete in the 21st century.

 A high-powered Strategic Development Commission headed by Mr Tung was formed to conduct macro-studies on Hong Kong's future including its positioning in the region and worldwide, links with the mainland and long-term policies such as population and manpower resources.

 Although its findings are due to be concluded by the end of this year or early next, it is understood that the Chief Executive plans to offer some initial thoughts on the macro-trend of Hong Kong's development in his upcoming address.

 New advisory committees have been set up to explore future development of new technology, industry, film-making and tourism.

 In his second speech, 'From Adversity to Opportunity,' Mr Tung appealed to the public to learn from flood-fighters in the mainland. Stay united and have confidence, he said, without offering strong leadership or any assuring ideas and measures.

 Shocked and battered by the financial turmoil, the Government has taken a series of controversial decisions on major economic and social policies as well as the civil service system.

 Intervention in the stockmarket. Sharp twists and turns in housing policy. An unprecedented private grant on the Cyber-Port project. Fresh ideas for the development of a Silicon Harbour, Chinese medicine port, flowers port . . . the latest is a Las Vegas-type casino-cum-entertainment centre in Lantau.

 Non-affiliated legislator Bernard Charnwut Chan said: 'Let's have no more new ideas. We have got too many already. What people want to see is something more immediate, not remote plans.

 'Some morale-boosting measures are needed to rebuild confidence. Confidence is the only thing we need desperately now.'  Mr Tung was aware of the need to bolster confidence. 'The most crucial factor now is our own confidence . . . we must not sell ourselves short nor lose confidence,' he said in last year's Policy Address.

 About half-way through his five-year term, Mr Tung needs to inspire confidence with a stronger political leadership, a clearer set of priorities and ways to implement his policy programme.

 Without a mandate built on popular votes, the Chief Executive will have to reconcile differences between major political forces, sectors and the community at large to secure the widest support for his policy programme and the thoughts behind it.

 His failure to do so over the past two years has resulted in greater tension, if not animosity, among important segments of society.

 He was at odds with the pro-democracy forces and the bulk of the legal community over rule of law, with property developers over housing policy, business chambers over worsening pollution, unionists over labour benefits and civil service staff groups over drastic reform of their sector.

 The business sector has become confused and frustrated with government policy, or the lack of a consistent one, on economic development. This is manifested in the recent row over the annual target of 85,000 residential units, Cyber-Port and grievances among small and medium-size industries.

 Normally known for their timidity when it comes to speaking out, academics and the middle-class have become more vocal over the Government's handling of the right of abode ruling.

 Controversies over the decision not to invite the Pope to visit Hong Kong and China's repeated barring of pro-democracy politicians from entering the mainland have raised doubts about the fundamentals of 'one country, two systems'.

 At the grassroots level, insecurities about jobs and pay remain with no sign of a full, early economic recovery.

 Widespread public discontent and divisions will severely undermine the process of building consensus on political, social and economic issues.

 With less than two weeks to go before October 6, there is no need to hastily wrap up a Disney deal to cheer the community. Nor do we need early announcements on plans to develop Chinese medicine and a chip-manufacturing base.

 Instead the Chief Executive needs to consolidate and prioritise his policy programme, act on pressing problems such as pollution and, more importantly, establish a wide base of community support to lead the SAR into the 21st century.



Future built on confidence