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Devaluation unlikely as WTO is centre stage

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Mark O'Neill

The likelihood that the mainland will devalue the yuan has diminished from earlier this year and the possibility is low in the next several months, according to Standard & Poor's Greater China director Lincoln Chan.

Mr Chan was speaking at a seminar on credit rating attended by bankers, financiers and analysts from the mainland.

'The possibility [of a devaluation] is still there but has fallen. Over the next several months, the chance is small,' Mr Chan said.

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'As for next year, we must look at how the domestic economy develops and many other factors, including negotiations to enter the World Trade Organisation,' Mr Chan added.

'The government is putting a great deal of effort into the negotiations and will not move in other areas. After the negotiations are finished, it is free to do other things,' he said.

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Most economists believe Beijing will not devalue the yuan while the WTO talks are going on, since that would send the wrong message to WTO members, and it has frequently boasted of how responsible it has been towards its Asian neighbours during the crisis, in keeping its currency stable.

Asked whether it was becoming easier to rate the shares of mainland state firms, Mr Chan said that, as in other developing countries, there were problems with information and other aspects.

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