A wealth of significance lies between the public and private statements of President Jiang Zemin on the mainland's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The trade accord with the United States has rightly been compared with momentous events in China's history of reform such as Deng Xiaoping's inauguration of the open-door policy in late 1978; America's recognition of China soon afterwards; and the late patriarch's 'imperial tour' of southern China in early 1992. It is natural for supporters of China's reform to expect grand speeches from Mr Jiang soon after last Monday's breakthrough. For example, a stirring address on live television on how Chinese should avail themselves of the opportunities of the brave new millennium of market integration. Or an earnest appeal to workers and farmers to stomach short-term sacrifices such as unemployment in return for the privileges WTO membership confers. Instead, Mr Jiang, normally given to long-winded speeches, has maintained an eerie reticence. Mr Jiang's public reference to WTO was confined to a few short, perfunctory remarks about the 'win-win' nature of the agreement when he met US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky shortly before the accord was signed. He also made a one-sentence reference to WTO while talking to Hong Kong reporters before meeting Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa on Monday. Mr Jiang said Beijing had 'full confidence' the accession formalities would be completed by early 2000. On the day of the breakthrough with the US, Mr Jiang presided over a Central Economic Work Conference, an annual get-together of Beijing and regional leaders to map strategies for the new year. According to a Xinhua report, Mr Jiang and other leaders at the conclave talked about 'enthusiastically expanding exports and the use of foreign capital'. Yet neither Xinhua nor other official media cited any reference to the WTO by participants of the three-day meeting. At least three points can be made about this curious development. First, opposition to the WTO deal is more ferocious - and widespread - than generally assumed. A source said that at the economic meeting, Mr Jiang did talk about the accession issue in some detail, albeit behind closed doors. Saying it was the right decision for China to take the leap, Mr Jiang asked senior cadres present 'not to raise controversy' over the issue. Cadres at the central and regional level should remain in unison with the central authorities on WTO, the president reportedly said. Mr Jiang's instruction notwithstanding, members of the anti-WTO lobby - including cadres working in ministries and provinces that stand to lose from accession - remained unconvinced. Moreover, they had the backing of powerful politicians such as National People's Congress Chairman Li Peng. The source said Mr Jiang had chosen to adopt a low-key stance on WTO so as not to further divide the party and society. Second, Mr Jiang probably finds it unwise to aggressively sell the WTO because he has not disclosed the full reasons for his endorsement of the deal with the US. As a trade source sees it, a prime reason behind the president's enthusiasm for WTO is diplomatic rather than economic: it is linked to his so-called 'great power diplomacy', or the imperative of boosting China's global status. 'Jiang thinks WTO membership is essential to China's great power status,' the source said. 'The president also wants to take personal credit for this breakthrough, which will buttress his claim he is on a par with Communist Party titans such as Mao [Zedong] and Deng.' It is understood Mr Jiang's next goal is joining the Group of Eight (G8) club of economically influential nations. While Washington has shown reservations, Western leaders such as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder have urged that the G8 be expanded to G9 to incorporate China. Within the Communist Party, however, opposition to great power diplomacy, if not also to Mr Jiang's efforts to use the WTO issue to boost his standing, remains entrenched. Which leads to the biggest question raised by Mr Jiang's low profile in the past week: his inability to demonstrate real leadership by espousing an unpopular line, or a policy that may upset the delicate balance among the disparate factions. Put another way, Mr Jiang is so accustomed to playing the role of mediator among the conflicting demands of different power blocs that he is reluctant to take a clear stand on contentious issues. Veteran Jiang watchers have noticed a familiar pattern of the president shying away from difficult or unpopular decisions. Mr Jiang has refused to entertain thorough solutions for the state-owned enterprises problem for fear of destabilising the party and society. Examples in foreign policy include his slow response to the Nato bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade last May. Mr Jiang was so nervous about facing the nation it was Vice-President Hu Jintao who made a speech on live television two days after the event. Likewise, Mr Jiang was hit by policy paralysis after US President Bill Clinton surprised Beijing by allowing Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui to visit the US in 1995. Mr Jiang's penchant for waffling has also undercut the authority and opportunities of bolder and more visionary leaders such as Premier Zhu Rongji. Since returning from his US trip in April, Mr Zhu has been hurt by Mr Jiang's wishy-washy stand on WTO. It is believed that at the Central Economic Work Conference, Mr Jiang acknowledged the work done by Mr Zhu in speeding the accession process. Mr Zhu, however, understands that given Mr Jiang's worries about a conservative backlash, he could never count on his full backing. Moreover, the Premier might be made the scapegoat should WTO membership precipitate an economic - and political - crisis. Following the example of his boss, the usually irrepressible Mr Zhu has kept quiet on WTO. His statements on the issue since the US accord were confined to a two-word response to a question from Hong Kong reporters covering the Tung visit. Asked if there would be an adverse impact on Hong Kong, Mr Zhu said: 'Not necessarily'. Willy Wo-Lap Lam is a South China Morning Post associate editor
