The mainland's economy is expected to grow by 7.6 per cent next year as expanded development of the poorer inland western region becomes one of the locomotives of growth, a leading government think-tank has said. The forecast by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences came after trade minister Shi Guangsheng said the economy was expected to grow more than 7 per cent next year. Premier Zhu Rongji previously said the mainland's economic growth would reach the official forecast of 7 per cent or higher this year, after rising 7.4 per cent in the first three quarters. While the academy predicted a pick-up in economic growth, it said unemployment remained a big headache, Xinhua news agency has reported. It said 7.42 million workers in the state sector were made redundant in the first half. Of these, only 2.02 million, or 27 per cent, have been re-employed. 'With the further deepening of reforms and re-adjustment of the [economic] structure, the number of unemployed will continue to grow. This is a problem the party, the state and the public are seriously concerned about,' the report said. It said 95 per cent of the unemployed were in employment training centres and 94 per cent received basic living subsidies averaging 170 yuan (about HK$158) a month each - leaving them with the lowest living standard. Looking at the bright side, the academy said the development of the western region, which has lagged behind the rest of the country, would be sped up. It said Beijing's plan to boost investment in infrastructure development and restructure the state sector would give the private sector more room to grow. The recent reversal of the decline of township enterprises would lift economic growth, while the technology sector would also expand, according to the academy. Effects of measures adopted in the second half of this year to kick-start domestic demand, stimulate consumption and improve the market environment would continue to filter through next year, while the rebound in export growth would also extend into the following year, the report said. The momentum of growth in the tourism sector was also expected to be maintained. The number of foreign visitors reached 53.25 million in first three quarters, with foreign exchange receipts of more than US$10 billion, up 14.64 per cent from the period a year ago. ECONOMY
