Your correspondent is a market watcher who confesses to knowing very little about criminology, but then some criminologists also know very little about markets.
A case in point is the HK$1.2 million television advertising campaign on which the Government has embarked to dissuade people from buying pirated CDs.
It features 30-second spots showing triad gangsters enjoying themselves at places of leisure such as the sauna (so that's what we call it) and saying 'thank you' to viewers for providing the money to spend on these pursuits.
Now the way markets work is that if you restrict the supply of a product in heavy demand the result will be rising prices for that product, which means more profit for those who can supply it.
So perhaps the right way to go is indeed to work on the demand side of the equation. If you can bring this down, as the Government is trying to do with these ads, then perhaps black market prices will go down too and make the gangsters look for cheaper saunas.
This strategy has two big flaws. The first is that it does not have much chance of success. Few people in this town think of CD piracy as a serious crime. They see it as a shady source of supply but this won't stop them if the price is right. The market is often stronger than the law. In fact these ads tell people that triad gangsters have good times at the sauna, which is a superb inducement to join a triad. The message on CD piracy is nowhere near as strong.
The same thing goes for the handbooks that teachers will get to preach the anti-piracy message. Judging by your correspondent's knowledge of teenagers (he has two of them) they will be in big demand indeed. They may provide some how-to instruction in buying pirate CDs. Forget the do-not message.
