The package of US arms sales to Taiwan approved by the Clinton White House this week represents an intriguing dollar-each-way bet ahead of a climatic few months in the Beijing-Washington-Taipei relationship.
There are aspects sure to anger all sides and yet others geared to ease concerns all round, arising as the Pentagon eyes a build-up on the mainland coast of an estimated 50 new missiles a year pointed at Taiwan.
'There has not been a single consideration that has outweighed all others,' one senior Clinton administration source said yesterday. 'There are so many factors to be weighed now . . . I can't think of a more delicate political, diplomatic and military minefield that we have to tip-toe through right now. There has been a lot of talk of the need to maintain 'strategic ambiguity' given all the events of the last year. Consider this an attempt to put this talk into action.' Despite its extensive - and expensive - Washington lobbying machine, Taiwan always stood little chance of getting its hands on the biggest-ticket item on its annual wish list: four Aegis destroyers.
At more than US$1.1 billion (HK$8.5 billion) each, the destroyers have state-of-the-art radars that can track 100 aircraft and missiles simultaneously. A floating battle-planning platform, the Aegis would have been enough to threaten a serious shift in the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait, Mr Clinton's top advisers concluded. Powerful Republicans such as Senate Majority leader Trent Lott and Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jesse Helms strongly disagree, and even some Democrat Congressmen have expressed disappointment.
While Beijing will sound off at even the slightest sniff of more weapons to Taiwan, it has made it repeatedly clear to White House envoys that the Aegis deal was the one they simply could not accept.
What Taiwan is instead scheduled to get is more training, assistance and three types of advanced missiles. Final details on an upgrade of the island's existing radar facilities are still being worked out, but will fall short of the full system known as Pave Paws, an advancement that would have allowed Taipei to spy 4,800 kilometres into the hinterland of the mainland, administration officials said. Pave Paws is currently extensively used by US forces seeking early warning of ballistic missiles, and it involves highly sensitive technology they are keen to keep.
With its air capability considered the priority, the Taiwanese will be sold an advanced form of Maverick missile - a weapon fired from planes to destroy ships - as well as new anti-tank weapons and an upgraded medium-range air-to-air missile to wipe out enemy planes. The latter, however, will be kept in the US unless Beijing starts obtaining its own version, possibly from Russia.