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Soaring inflation sparks fear of unrest on mainland, poll reveals

SPIRALLING inflation on the mainland has sparked widespread fears of social unrest, a ground-breaking Sunday Morning Post opinion poll has revealed.

An exclusive survey in southern China's two largest cities found 51 per cent worried about the rising cost of living, and 34 per cent believed it could lead to civil disorder. A further 14 per cent were unsure.

However, 52 per cent said they felt there wasno danger of unrest.

With Shenzhen's retail price inflation rate now topping 35 per cent, the poll also provided unprecedented proof of the difficulties Beijing faces in trying to cool down the economy.

Eighty-two per cent of those surveyed in Guangzhou and Shenzhen wanted their city to have greater economic autonomy, a move which would deprive the central government of its main means of exercising control, while less than two per cent disagreed, and 16per cent expressed no opinion.

But a surprisingly high 66 per cent expressed confidence that measures recently taken by Beijing, including higher interest rates, would ease the situation. Fourteen per cent disagreed and 20 per cent were unsure.

The poll - conducted by telephone from Hongkong - comes days after reports that Chinese President Mr Jiang Zemin had warned of widespread political chaos if the country failed to rein in inflation and the money supply.

A previous bout of inflation in 1988 was widely seen as one of the main causes of the 1989 pro-democracy protests, that culminated in the June 4 massacre.

Hongkong Polling and Business Research managing director Mr Citi Hung Ching-tin - who supervised the survey - said last night the results showed ''alarmingly high'' expectations of civil disorder, coupled with an unrealistic confidence that Beijing couldexercise control, which would only lead to more trouble.

''The government has very few ways of controlling inflation these days,'' he said. ''But if these high expectations are not met it will cause another round of discontent and even unrest.'' Leading local academic Professor Joseph Cheng Yu-shek, of the City Polytechnic, said popular concern over inflation was likely to be higher than the level shown in a survey conducted by telephone. Such a survey, he said, would be confined to fairly affluent households.

But he said unrest was unlikely in Guangdong, since the province was now prosperous, with most local residents able to keep pace with rising prices.

''Guangzhou has been enjoying all the symptoms of a rapidly modernising society, and therefore people have accepted high inflation as the price for fast economic growth,'' Professor Cheng said.

The poll of 433 people on May 27-28 found 51 per cent felt their family's income had kept pace with rising prices over the past year, while 39 per cent said it had not, and 10 per cent were unsure. The survey's response rate was 61 per cent.

In the wake of recent strikes in the Special Economic Zone of Zhuhai, and other parts of the Pearl River Delta, 33 per cent of those surveyed said they were thinking of seeking a pay rise. However, 38 per cent had no such intention, and 29 per cent expressed no opinion.

There were also indications that there had been little panic buying as yet, with only four per cent admitting to having made more purchases than usual, for fear that prices would go on rising.

While 51 per cent were worried about the effects of inflation, 47 per cent were not, and two per cent expressed no opinion.

But the survey also revealed overwhelming optimism about China's future, with 82 per cent saying the mainland will be politically and economically better off in three years' time, although this was still sharply down on the 93 per cent recorded in a similar poll last October.

Only one per cent believed China's situation would worsen, while six per cent thought it would remain the same, and 11 per cent were unsure.

Mr Hung, whose company has conducted more than 10 polls on the mainland, said this was the most difficult they had ever done.

''People didn't want to talk and, when they did, they wanted to get it over and done with as quickly as possible,'' he said, describing it as even tougher than last October's Sunday Morning Post poll on mainland attitudes towards the Governor's politicalreform proposals.

''When you ask about Mr Chris Patten you are asking about foreign affairs, but when you ask about inflation you are asking people to judge their own government.''

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