FOR ANYONE IN Hong Kong wondering whether the crucial China trade vote will pass the United States Congress, the latest White House publicity coup this week must have looked heartening. The sight of former Republican president Gerald Ford flanked by his Democrat successor Jimmy Carter and surrounded by notables such as former national security advisers Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, all smiling in support of permanently normalising trade with China, was a warm one.
The trouble is that it was largely a symbolic gesture - an act generated by Bill Clinton, a president ever more desperate to push this vote through in his last year of office, knowing how vital it is to a threatened legacy.
Given that it has been a quarter of a century since the likes of Mr Ford and Mr Kissinger padded through the Oval Office, Washington insiders are looking beyond the good vibes emanating from the White House this week to Capitol Hill, where the actual action will take place, and where the vote hangs in the balance.
Just a fortnight from the vote in the House of Representatives, weeks of debate and back-room deal-making are starting to congeal. And Hong Kong should pay close attention, as exporters could find themselves dragged into possible future trade rows that suddenly have a whole new political dimension.
Not only is there to be a vote on permanent normal trading relations (PNTR), but there is the prospect of so-called parallel legislation. These are laws which may ensure future congressional involvement in matters ranging from human rights to trade compliance, created to give political 'cover' to a yes vote for China in such a heated environment.
On the surface, PNTR will end the annual congressional circus that has increasingly linked trade to political and human rights issues and become painful for Beijing. Wavering politicians on both sides, however, want something to keep the heat on the human rights issue.
Michigan Democrat Congressman Sander Levin, together with Nebraska Republican colleague Doug Bereuter, is compiling a detailed framework package to do just that. He also wants to ensure that Congress has a key role in future trade compliance while making certain that US markets are better protected from any future surges in Chinese exports.