IF Tung Chee-hwa ever thought that standing for a second term would be easy, then recent events should certainly have shattered any illusions.
Last week's unflattering headlines - following a poll which found fewer than one in five people want him to stand again - were only the start. Even though Mr Tung must have already had some inkling of his unpopularity, this revelation of the depth of public opposition towards his goal of serving a second term is sure to have come as a nasty shock.
And there is almost certainly worse to come. It is only a matter of time before further such surveys start comparing Mr Tung with potential rivals in the 2002 contest. Given his abysmal ratings in the poll results released last week - which were part of a study by Baptist University's Hong Kong Transition Project - it would be no surprise to see these rank him behind even businessman Peter Woo Kwong-ching.
The former Wharf Group chairman, who stood against Mr Tung in 1996, has recently hinted he wants to do so again with a series of reactionary newspaper articles apparently aimed at proving his anti-democratic credentials to Beijing. His interest in standing will only be emboldened by this evidence of the extent of his rival's unpopularity.
But an even greater danger for Mr Tung is that Chief Secretary for Administration Anson Chan Fang On-sang might finally be tempted into standing against him. Her ambition to become Chief Executive is no secret, as she was only narrowly dissuaded from joining the 1996 contest, when it became clear she stood no chance of success.
Mrs Chan is certainly not so naive as to believe that public opinion will be the determining factor in a contest which will be decided by an Election Committee of only 800 voters, and where the final result at least partly depends on which candidate is most trusted by Beijing. But nor is it something which she will be able to ignore if, as seems likely after last week's findings, future surveys show the public prefer her to Mr Tung by a margin of three - or even four - to one.
