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Truth in Chinese whispers?

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Why you can trust SCMP

Martin Lau Kwok-kit is keeping his feet on the ground even though many investors are getting excited about the mainland's prospects.

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The macroeconomic numbers coming out of the mainland look good but always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, said the co-manager of Invesco's PRC fund.

'From time to time we have a little bit of excitement but after a few months we discover the economy is still in its downward spiral,' said Mr Lau.

'But this time we have more bottom-up evidence that the economy is recovering.' Better power consumption, retail sales and port throughput are figures which cannot be fudged by the government.

'It is dangerous at this point to assume China has a full blown recovery because China still has structural problems remaining,' he said. 'Our strategy is to focus on bottom-up performances, essentially to buy those companies which can get by, even without assuming China is recovering full speed.' The mainland stands out from the rest of the region, which has already probably posted its best economic numbers as it rebounds from the economic crisis.

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'From China the signs of an economic recovery are just starting and therefore from a regional perspective China stocks stand a fairly good chance of outperforming in the next 12 months,' Mr Lau said.

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