The turnout for the Legislative Council elections in September may be lower than the 1998 record of 53 per cent, according to an academic.
Professor Joseph Cheng Yu-shek of City University forecast the figure would be slightly lower due to the growth in the electorate's size.
The Government successfully increased the voting population from 2.83 million to more than three million in the latest registration drive.
Most of the newly enfranchised are under the age of 25. But from past experience, the political scientist warned that the new voters were the least enthusiastic in turning out.
Speaking on RTHK's Letter to Hong Kong programme, broadcast yesterday, Professor Cheng said pre-handover voters' preference, which benefited the pro-democracy camp, had changed since 1997. 'In the past, Hong Kong people voted for staunch critics of Beijing and the Hong Kong Government. They also supported an acceleration of the pace of democratisation. Such values favoured the pro-democracy camp,' he said.
'Today, it seems that the community has been reasonably assured of Beijing's non-interference policy, and it realises that it will be difficult to push for democratic reforms before 2007.'