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Jane Moir

Hong Kong has outstripped the region with record-breaking growth in tourism and is back on track to become the world's fifth most popular holiday destination by 2020, according to the World Tourism Organisation.

An 18.3 per cent surge in visitors to the SAR last year is well above the region's overall 13.5 per cent annual growth - a figure which itself has entered the history books.

Southeast Asia has become a 'star performer after two miserable years', according to deputy secretary-general of the global travel body, Dawid de Villiers.

'The catching up is still going on; Asia-Pacific is ever increasing its slice of the tourism cake.'

Speaking at the International Tourism Asia conference, he said: 'Tourism is back on track and is clearly up to the predictions we put forward five years ago, regardless of the Asian financial crisis.'

Southeast Asia not only set a new growth record but is expected to break the 100 million barrier this year, hitting the 110 million mark by the end of this year, thanks to strong economic growth. By 2010, 195 million visitors are expected to visit the region, soaring to 397 million by 2020.

'These figures are fairly conservative,' Dr De Villiers said.

Nevertheless, the growth is faster than the predicted global figure. An estimated 56.6 million visitors are expected to visit the SAR by 2020, with the mainland stealing the top global slot from France with 130 million arrivals, according to the travel body.

Only two years ago, Hong Kong suffered a decrease of 6 per cent in visitor arrivals, and last year recorded 11.32 million visitors, an 18.3 per cent increase on 1998.

Simon Hau, chairman of the Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong, said he was heartened by the high number of arrivals during the low season.

'According to our records and information from agents in Hong Kong, a trend for recovery has appeared,' he said.

The Hong Kong Tourist Association (HKTA) only makes five-year projections on tourist arrivals, with 13.5 million expected next year, rising to 15.5 million in 2003 and 17.6 million in 2005.

Hong Kong is the No 2 destination in the region, behind the mainland. However, Hong Kong is not on the top 10 list of global destinations and, in terms of earnings, is also lagging.

Although the SAR is the second most popular destination in the region, it is only the third-largest earner. According to the HKTA, visitor spending is expected to be HK$62.71 billion this year.

The figure is expected to bottom out in the next five years. Growth in visitor spending by next year is projected to be about 7.8 per cent, with a 7.4 per cent increase in 2002 and 6.6 per cent by 2004.

A spokesman for the HKTA said this was partly due to the body's own conservative outlook on growth estimates.

'We base figures on current market trends and we would rather be conservative with our estimates of growth, particularly when we are looking years ahead,' she said.

Tourists to the region tend to stay for shorter periods and prices are still relatively low in economically troubled nations.

Other destinations are gaining in earnings, however. The mainland, for example, saw 11.9 per cent growth in receipts last year, earning US$14.1 billion.

'I think the Asia-Pacific region is getting more mature and is becoming a stronger generating market,' Dr De Villiers said.

By 2010, the World Tourism Organisation expects outbound tourism from the region to reach 193 million people. It is forecast to double again with 405 million residents packing their bags to travel abroad by 2020 - one in every four tourists.

The top spenders are still the Japanese - spending an average of US$1,823 per trip abroad, followed by Australians, Macanese and New Zealanders.

France is still the world's top destination, with 73 million visitors last year.



Move into world No 5 forecast by 2020 with mainland seen replacing France as top destination