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Matters of fact, figure and fancy

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AS a general rule, Americans love a winner. They also have an abiding affection for statistics. (The chartists have managed to reduce the subtleties of soccer to figures. On Wednesday, the US women's team lost Olympic gold to Norway three goals to two. It wasn't that bad, one local commentator optimistically suggested, the Americans won 15-3 in terms of shots on goal.) Combine these two national passions, and we get the cult of the political poll.

With the presidential election just under six weeks away, America's ranks of pollsters are in their quadrennial frenzy, feeding a public that just can't get enough. Each night there are tracking polls, showing of late, ironically, that George W. Bush and Al Gore are so close that they are inside the margin of statistical error.

Then each day there are new issue polls. In one of the latest, Americans show themselves to be keen to ensure that the US military remains the most powerful on earth, yet not so keen on the issue as to make it pivotal to the current election. Instead, education, health care and retirement are the issues taxing Americans.

Then there are the more personal questions. Gallup recently reported that women generally think Mr Gore is better looking, whereas men prefer Mr Bush's boyish features. Intriguingly, when it comes to voting, women generally intend to back Mr Gore and men Mr Bush. The differences, however, merge when it comes to intelligence. Similar numbers of women and men believe Mr Gore to be smarter. They are mixed, however, on who would be a better dinner date.

There are even polls about polls. On its Web site, the giant Gallup polling machine admits that 'polls can seem mysterious', before going to great lengths to describe how, with careful random selection, 1,000 Americans can represent the presidential inclinations of a nation of 273 million people. They acknowledge they have a lot of work to do in the public relations stakes. 'People generally believe the results of polls, but do not believe in the scientific principles,' Gallup states.

Politicians, of course, famously bag the process, particularly when they are losing. Mr Bush promises leadership, not 'poll-driven calculus'. 'Who believes polls?' asked Democratic fund-raiser Terry McAuliffe, when quizzed about Mr Gore's shabby performance for much of the year.

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