After making an express start to trading tomorrow, Mass Transit Railway Corp shares could be on track to hit HK$15.80 a share within six months. That would give retail investors 77.92 per cent upside from the HK$8.88 per share they paid in the block-busting US$1.16 billion privatisation. 'I think with its fundamentals it can test its net asset value of HK$15.80 within six months,' said Kenny Tang Sing-hing, Tung Tai Securities associate director. Pension fund manger Aberdeen Investment Trust has already indicated it would buy in the market to top up its initial public offering allocation, said David Harman of Typhoon Eight Research. 'They are long-term players these guys, they play the fundamentals, they don't speculate,' Mr Harman said. With institutions like Aberdeen buying and holding, MTRC should head towards its net asset value, he agreed. The 180 billion MTRC shares were 33 times oversubscribed, leaving analysts unanimous in expecting the railway to thunder at a healthy mark-up to the IPO price. Shares were changing hands in the grey market at up to HK$12, said Mr Tang, who expects MTRC to trade between HK$11 and HK$12 on its debut. 'They changed the allocation from 80 per cent for institutions to 40 per cent, forcing the institutions to buy the stock in the open market,' Mr Tang said. But not all analysts believe MTRC will see HK$15 within months. 'It may take four or five years to go to this level,' said Tai Fook Securities head of research Marco Mak Tak-kwong. He believes the railway will be weighed down by the billion of dollars in capital expenditure it will have to make on the West Rail, Tseung Kwan O and Sha Tin to Central projects. Some pundits were even more bearish and recommended investors grab their profits in the frenzied first day of trading. That would mean foregoing bonus share issues after one and two years. 'I think the IPO price is a perfectly sensible valuation,' said Stephen Brown, head of research at Kim Eng Securities, who expected the stock to hit HK$11 on its debut before sliding. The bears point out the MTRC is caught between making profits and pleasing the public and Government. After its debut the stock may perform in line with property counters as most of its earnings were derived from real estate, said Phillip Securities research director Louis Wong Wai-kit: 'If it reaches HK$13 it is already a satisfactory share performance.'