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Holiday economics big hit as nation spends hard

Judging from the empty Coca-Cola cans, discarded lunch boxes and used train tickets - the National Day holiday was a success. China asked its consumers to spend - and spend they did.

Newspapers reported a big jump in the use of electricity, while retailers noted a strong upturn in sales. Taxi drivers had smiles on their faces and travel plans for the week-long holiday were given a helping hand by extra trains, planes and buses.

China's 'holiday economics' are proving to be a big hit with the public while they give the economy a much-needed boost.

'I'm sorry but we need a bit more time to process your photographs,' said an attendant at a Kodak shop in Shanghai.

'Business is really good over the holiday.'

That type of anecdotal evidence was seen elsewhere. Even rainy weather could not put too much of a dampener on the shopping spree.

'Business is pretty good,' said a noodle shop owner, as she scrambled to serve customers at her shop near one of Shanghai's big tourist attractions.

Despite concerns over job losses as the nation's state-run industry retrenches, and the prospect of reduced subsidies for a range of social services, consumers appeared willing to open their wallets, at least over the holiday.

In the first five days of the holiday, about 70,000 people had taken trips on the Huangpu River tour boats and another 30,000 had viewed the city's new sightseeing tunnel on its opening day.

If that many people will pay to ride through an illuminated tunnel, there is obviously a lot of pent-up demand for entertainment on the mainland.

This is not just a Shanghai phenomenon. Beijing department stores were extending their shopping hours to accommodate the shopping crush, and similar reports of ringing cash registers emerged nationwide.

Up to 50 million people were expected to be travelling this week, spending more than 20 billion yuan (HK$18.72 billion) compared with an estimated 40 million travellers who spent 18 billion yuan a year ago.

Last year, the government made the National Day holiday a week long, extending it from the usual three days. The aim was to get people spending to boost a sluggish economy.

It was so successful that China's hard-working commissars tried it again on May Day, offering another week off to a delighted public.

While economic growth is likely to be a respectable 7 per cent to 8 per cent this year, retail sales are still looking sluggish and there has been no dramatic recovery from a prolonged bout of deflation. Retail sales were up only an annual 9.9 per cent for the first eight months, well below levels of past years.

The retail price index has held stubbornly to negative territory since October 1997. The inability to turn that index around may partly explain the recent decision by the State Statistical Bureau to stop compiling it.

While the benchmark consumer price index has seen four months of increases, economists expect the index to show a rise of less than 1 per cent for the year.

The nation's leaders have also decided that the travel industry is worth promoting. While they see a short-term stimulus for the economy as a whole, they are also hoping to tap the potential of the travel sector over the longer term.

That, however, is one area where holiday economics are having less of an impact than they might otherwise. Previous extended holidays led to so many complaints about huge traffic jams, overcrowded hotels and dreadful service that some people may be staying closer to home.

Newspapers carried the not too subtle message that it might be best to spend money closer to where they live.

'The long holiday definitely will benefit the economy,' said Chen Xuebin, a professor of economics at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

'But the benefits might be less than last year. People who travelled last year probably learned their lesson and decided not to go too far from home.'

More holiday time will mean more time to spend spare cash but staggered holidays would do more good for the travel industry. Why travel when it means fighting with the crowds to get to your holiday destination and another fight to get home?

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