Guess What can make consistency pay by taking the fifth event on this afternoon's Sha Tin Trophy card at the New Territories venue.
The Andy Leung Ting-wah-trained four-year-old has yet to win but has been most consistent of late and looks ideally placed in this Class Five contest over a mile on the dirt - a race in which it is hard to fancy too many of the others, which is not something that can be said for the rest of the day's racing.
Guess What will have to work a bit harder early in the race as he's drawn barrier 14. Normally that would make tipping him a no-no. But he has so much natural early speed, and so much speed out of the gates for that matter, that local rider Eddy Lai can go forward and overcome his draw.
That task should be made easier by the fact that only Hole In One and Longmark are guaranteed influences for speed. As the stylish French rider Eric Saint-Martin is on Hole In One it is unlikely that this one will go bonkers in front. Club jockey Dane O'Neill, back from an ear injury sustained last weekend, is on Longmark and O'Neill is not a front-running rider by any stretch of the imagination.
This should help Lai and Guess What as it means that Lai should be able to get across more easily. It is not as if the energy Guess What looks set to expend during the first part of the race, given his outside draw, is going to make the difference between winning and losing as it might if he didn't have such natural early speed and if there was a whole stack of speed elsewhere in the race.
What's more, Guess What might reasonably be expected to improve from his last-start neck second to Equine Supremo as it was his dirt debut. He's also two pounds better off for a neck with Equine Supremo, who had much more experience on the all-weather prior to that clash.
An even bigger factor, probably significantly over and above the two-pound weight swing, is the recent heavy rain. It will almost certainly see the Sha Tin dirt ride that much quicker as it will have been compacted, like the sand just after the tide has gone out. The compaction will favour those that race on the speed. This will clearly aid Guess What's chance whereas Equine Supremo's run style is to get back in his races. From barrier one he's set to be a long way back, perhaps even too far for the great Shane Dye to do anything meaningful about it.
