SINCE the 577 low of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 1974, the greatest bull market in history has continued for 19 years. The Dow has advanced to 3,478 - an increase of 505 per cent. Over the same period the Dow Transports have advanced from a 1974 price of 125 to a recent price of over 1,600, an astounding increase of 1,475 per cent, writes Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, California. He continues, ''The huge 1949-66 bull market lasted 17 years, and that one died of old age. ''As a comparison, the famous bull market of the 1920s took the DJIA from 64 in 1921 to 381 in 1929, a rise of 495 per cent which occurred over a period of eight years, making the rise in the current bull market comparable to the Dow's percentage rise in1921-29. ''But the lowly Transports (how they were despised in 1974, remember?) have far out performed the Industrials.'' Naturally, this is all history. The question on everyone's mind now is: the stock market has had a 19-year rise of over 500 per cent, but where do we go from here? Robert Prechter, the Elliot Wave supremo expects the DJIA to rise to the 3,600-3,700 area prior to what he believes will be the worst bear market in US history. Mr Russell further points out that the greatest bull market in history harnessed the powers of inflation. He believes there has been a trade-off. The dollar is a floating fiat currency backed by over US$15 trillion debt. He says the US must inflate or die. That it is doing. The answer to when the current 19-year bull market will end is something no one can answer as all targets are guesses. What we do know is that every bull market in history ends some time, and every bear market ends some time. All the stock markets in the world are overpriced; naturally some more than others. Those in Asia, where the money is flowing, and Latin America, are less overpriced then others. As for me, I am aware that greed is man's undoing. I am out of the market except on rare, special situations. My experience tells me that if one hasn't made enough out of this bull in 19 years, that person is likely to have his head handed back to him. My main activity is buying Leap Puts on indices and stocks, and betting against over-priced markets. Trusts in danger HERE lies the danger of blood in the streets. There are more mutual funds, unit trusts, pension and estate trust funds than stocks in most countries. There are over 3,000 mutual funds in the US, and that is not counting all the other types of funds such as pension funds. US$40 billion went into funds in a recent month. The danger lies in several areas. Principally, the average person has embraced funds of whatever name as a savings account. Money market funds and bank savings accounts pay so little interest, they have gambled on funds, many of which have a gluttonous entry fee of three to eight per cent. In some cases they will outperform bank deposits, but there is no guarantee. In other circumstances they may greatly under-perform bank deposits, and certainly do worse than individuals privately investing in stocks. It is questionable whether managed funds that charge front-end-load, withdrawal fee, and management fee, plus other charges, outperform management of your own money yourself. I've checked many on a computer on a six-month, and even one-year basis. Many fall far short of bank interest, even if the bank interest is zero. One great problem of managed funds is exiting in a major drop. It is a well-known fact that funds in general try to outperform other funds. A fund manager sees his objective as beating other fund managers; not creating wealth for his clients. The problem is that most fund managers invest most of their money in the same stocks as other managers. Most have their major money in the basic blue chip stocks; when the crunch arises, all exit at once. Who can they sell to? When they all try to sell at once, their clients' money melts. The unit trust or mutual fund is likely to have a melt-down. You will be wise to be out of the market when the melt-down comes, and above all, be out of mutual funds andunit trusts. Do not misunderstand that I do not like unit trusts or mutual funds. I am stating that they are better at the beginning of a bull market, not at the tail-end of a 19-year bull. No way but down THE US dollar remains barely steady following the sharp late-May decline against the hard European currencies including the Swiss franc, mark and French franc. The March 4 US report of a large increase in employment gave the dollar a knee-jerk quick rise. If employment did rise as this statistic shows (Albert Sindlinger Co, the most trusted statistician, does not agree the rise occurred) this would be a step closer to inflation, which will lower the dollar's exchange value. Unless the dollar can close above June's high, which does not appear likely, it will fall back and challenge the end-April, early-May lows. It appears that the dollar will fall through this support. The dollar is barely stable against the yen, suggestingit will fall lower. Leon Richardson is a well-known financial commentator and investor The British pound has steadied against other European currencies following its downward dynamics. This confirms that major peaks were reached in late May. Therefore, all that can be expected are brief rallies. Against the yen a new low has been seen, and only a quick rally back into the previous range, which appears unlikely, would negate current prospects for an additional decline. The Swiss franc's rally against the dollar reconfirms the strength of underlying support, and there will be little risk that it can pass May's highs. The Swissie has recovered against European currencies and is well-supported to stay strong.