Bush not expected to rock the boat on Asian foreign policy

Asian governments can expect more continuity than change from a Bush administration, although there could be a less overt focus on human rights, analysts and economists said yesterday.

Foreign affairs played a minor role in the protracted US presidential campaign, with Asian issues little mentioned, they said, as governments around the region offered their congratulations to George W. Bush.

While the new White House incumbent could push Washington towards a slightly warmer relationship with Tokyo and Taipei, at Beijing's expense, the main themes were expected to be familiar, they said.

The US emphasis would remain on regional security, backed by a continued military presence close to key Asian flashpoints and coupled with a drive for further trade liberalisation. Analysts said, however, that a Bush administration may be less inclined to take an open and aggressive line on human rights issues, and may also shy away from any future humanitarian military interventions.

'I would see overall policy as pretty much unchanged,' one regional analyst said. 'The only difference may be one of style, with a Bush administration less likely to say things [on human rights issues] publicly. But it will continue to go on behind the scenes.'

The Bush victory would be especially welcome in Malaysia, the analyst said. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's Government has been cool towards Al Gore since the Vice-President delivered a speech in Kuala Lumpur in which he made a brief reference praising the reformasi movement, led by the now-imprisoned former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

'Yes of course, for the Malaysians this will be perceived as a good thing. Mahathir and others have taken against Gore since that one line in the speech in 1998,' the analyst said.