Advertisement
Advertisement

Dreams of quick riches give way to disappointment for shell-shocked investors

The new millennium began with much euphoria, but the year looks likely to end with a whimper - at least for investors. For those who entered the new year dreaming of new riches, the ensuing 12 months have been a dismal disappointment.

After a buying frenzy early in the year, Hong Kong's market turned bearish as the dream faded.

The year began brightly. Riding the crest of the Nasdaq technology wave, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) hovered around the 17,000 points mark and tested 17,500 in the heady days of February and March before reaching a record high of 18,302 on March 28.

Then the bottom fell out of the dotcom market, sending both the HSI and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) into nosedives from which they are yet to fully recover.

The GEM, the second board in the SAR, found itself particularly vulnerable to the crash of the Internet market. After reaching a high of 1,021.74 points on March 28, it spiralled ever downwards, and on Friday closed at a dismal 307.95 points.

The craze for companies listing on the GEM board reached a pinnacle in March and was evident in the long queues sparked by Internet portal Tom.com's initial public offering (IPO). Soon after it started trading, its share price rose to HK$15.35 but is now trading at HK$2.07.

'The bubble was evident right after the IPO of Tom.com. SAR investors have a very short memory,' said a strategist at a local brokerage.

A brief rally in the HSI during August was swiftly quashed. An additional tech stocks slump, this time brought on by a slew of profit warnings in the United States, was held responsible.

September and October saw a number of aggravating factors surfaced: increased oil prices, an uncertain Euro, and a US unresolved presidential election combined to leave the Hong Kong market looking sluggish. In November, the HSI dipped below 14,000 points as the expected year-end rally failed to materialise.

By now, even the slightest piece of good news, such as Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's hint of a US interest rate cut, was enough to be hailed as a recovery.

Unfortunately, though, more and more commentators were describing the situation in Hong Kong as a fully-fledged bear market.

In terms of raw numbers, the stock market did not perform too badly this year. It raised a record HK$460 billion, thanks in part to HK$132 billion from IPOs. The rest of that amount was mainly made up by H shares issued by China enterprises and red chips.

The year also saw the blue chip index reach its second-highest ever turnover - HK$3.079 trillion.

The year, though, has left financial planners at the end of their tether. And for the SAR's financial planning industry, the year has been a tough one.

Peter Woo, investment director and head of asset management at financial advisers Towry Law, believes this year was a difficult one for equity investors.

'In general, 2000 has been a poor year for equity investors,' said Mr Woo. 'Most global equity indexes have declined, and have behaved with much volatility. Most investors probably incurred loss in their portfolios,' he said.

A recurring theme among financial planners is the poor performance of equities and mutual funds this year. According to financial planning firm Convoy NPL's sales and marketing director Quincy Wong, it is the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) sector that is most to blame.

Mr Wong said: 'All kinds of products linked to TMT have done particularly badly this year. Technology shares in general, especially some of the Japanese technology shares, have underperformed this year,' he said.

However, there have been some success stories among investment vehicles this year. John Lui, head of portfolio management at Allen Perkins, believes that because of the equity downturn, the alternative investment sector has come into its own this year.

'Fixed income arbitrage, corporate bond arbitrage and merger arbitrage have all delivered this year,' said Mr Lui. 'In the alternative investment area, stable managers continue to deliver.'

It appears to have been a good year for arbitrageurs, who buy and sell financial instruments on different markets, in order to take advantage of the price difference between the markets.

'Alternative investment strategies such as managers engaged in fixed-income arbitrage have been one of the better investment vehicles in the year 2000,' said Mr Woo.

Mr Wong added: 'Alternative investment strategies have done quite well as there is not much correlation with equity products.'

As for markets, Hong Kong was not alone in its struggles. The US, Japanese and Taiwanese boards all suffered. One notable exception was China.

'The only stock market that has registered a gain is China,' said Mr Lui. 'China definitely stands out from the pack.'

Figures recently released by the Hong Kong Investment Funds Association demonstrated that investors were losing confidence with equities and were instead flocking to guaranteed funds in greater numbers.

Mr Wong believes that guaranteed products have benefited from the market volatility.

He said: 'Guaranteed products have proven quite successful as people want safer, more comfortable products.'

Graphic: SPLA24gwz

Post