Three steps to heaven - with many pitfalls along the way

The Triple Crown was never meant to be easy, but always the burning question at the start of a new series is what are the chances of it being achieved this year. The answer - and you hardly need the IQ of Einstein to work it out - lies somewhere between slim and none.

For a start, you need a horse that is going to compete in all three legs, let alone win them. And in these days of white-hot competition at every level, where specialisation has become a necessity and where there are so many competing objectives, it is a rare horse indeed which can excel at three different distances over a four-month period against the very best opponents.

Speed, stamina, versatility, durability - and above all brilliance. That's what it takes to become a Triple Crown champion. The first test for the 13 hopefuls setting out on the Triple Crown trail today is the 1,600-metre Stewards' Cup. If they pass that examination - and for 12 of them, there is the small matter of Fairy King Prawn to deal with first - it's on to the Hong Kong Gold Cup in March, when the distance goes up by 400 metres, and then it increases again for the Aetna Champions & Chater Cup over 2,400m in May.

And, after today, there can be only one horse in the running for the big prize, almost certainly Fairy King Prawn. The 2,000 metres of the Gold Cup might be within his compass, but the final leg over 1.5 miles would surely stretch his stamina too far. And there is the diverting prospect of a US$2 million race in Dubai to tempt his connections away from a crack at the ultimate prize here.

That is why Hong Kong's Triple Crown - which today enters its 10th year - has seen only one horse sweep the series, and that was the great River Verdon in the 1993-94 season. Others have come close to matching his feat - but two out of three just ain't good enough in this most demanding of challenges.

It is the same in the more established series in England, where the last Triple Crown winner was Nijinsky in 1970, and America, which has not cheered a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. And it is no different to other sports. Pete Sampras has never won a tennis Grand Slam, while Tiger Woods has not managed a golfing Grand Slam - yet. But that is as it should be if these sporting endeavours are to retain their appeal. The demands are high, but so are the rewards. This year, all three races in the Triple Crown will be worth $6m, an increase of $1.7m each for the Stewards' Cup and the Gold Cup to bring them in line with the Champions and Chater Cup. If a horse does land the Triple Crown, a bonus of $5m awaits the owner. Winning two legs would net a bonus of $2m.