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Heat on sunshine policy

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SCMP Reporter

North Korea's 'Dear Leader' Kim Jong-il was making hay at the expense of others long before South Korean President Kim Dae-jung began his sunshine policy of seeking better relations with that reclusive state.

But United States President George W. Bush threatens to send dark clouds scudding across the peninsula, spelling trouble for a South Korean leader who already faces pressure at home as economic woes continue and critics question the effectiveness of his rapprochement efforts.

His cabinet reshuffle is intended to reinforce his policy towards a belligerent neighbour. The new ministers are sunshine-policy supporters to a man. Most significantly, the replacement for gaffe-prone Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn is former ambassador to Washington Han Seung-soo, who has close friends in the Bush administration.

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Mr Kim needs all the help he can get. There is a pugilistic mood in the White House and no evidence that conciliation towards Pyongyang has produced major results. Even former president Bill Clinton pulled out of a planned visit there in his last days in office, fearing he would return empty-handed. Either Mr Bush wants to see if toughness can succeed where a soft approach has failed, or he finds it useful to keep the North condemned as a rogue state to justify plans for a missile defence shield.

With an election in the offing, Mr Kim must both keep the sunshine policy going and maintain good US relations. But much of this is out of his hands and the US game plan isn't clear. If Washington gets really tough with the North, tension will increase across the peninsula. Unless Pyongyang is prepared to repay Seoul's peace efforts, the US could call that a compelling argument for spending billions on a defence programme that ultimately might not work.

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An American foreign relations group has urged Mr Bush to back the South's efforts. But the only way that message is likely to be heard is if North Korea cuts its military presence and gives concrete proof that it seeks peace. Reunions of old people and an exchange of mail have symbolic value but these alone won't guarantee long-term stability.

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