If there was ever a time for Chinese and American leaders to give serious thought to the future of their relationship, that time is now. A seemingly random series of past and pending events is pushing them into increasingly unfriendly exchanges. Letting that dangerous trend continue directly contradicts their basic interests and those of the entire region.
The immediate issue is the fate of the US surveillance plane that made an emergency landing at a Hainan military base after a midair collision with a Chinese fighter; the fighter crashed and its pilot was presumably killed. Beijing says the whole thing was the Americans' fault, that the lumbering propeller plane swerved sharply and hit one of the two fighters that were tailing it. Washington suggests that Chinese jets having been flying perilously close to their patrol craft for months and that the fighter was probably at fault.
This incident recalls similar Cold War cases involving US spy planes and ships. And it comes just as other items threaten to sour the Sino-American relationship, well before the new George W. Bush administration has sorted out its foreign policy in general and China policy in particular.
The augury is not favourable. In addition to the plane issue, other matters are influencing US-China ties in an undesirable way.
Foremost among them is the pending US decision about selling new arms to Taiwan. Some island authorities want a new class of destroyer with modern Aegis radar systems, upgraded versions of Patriot anti-missile missiles and submarines. Many conservative American politicians agree, both because they distrust mainland intentions towards their Taiwanese friends and perhaps because such sales would bring fat contracts to their home districts.
But Beijing, which realises (reluctantly) that some sales are unavoidable, insists providing those three weapons would cross into politically unacceptable territory. Thus some members of the Bush team must put aside their hawkish instincts and consider carefully just what Taiwan truly needs and why. It also means Beijing must accept, in reality if not in law, that military actions around the Taiwan Strait - where its missile forces are growing - directly affect what weapons Taipei does receive. Restraint fuels restraint, while a lack of it does the opposite.