A GROUP OF Taiwanese military officials will gather quietly in Washington next week for a rather important meeting with their United States counterparts from the Pentagon. In keeping with the delicacies of the US stance on the one-China policy, there will be little formal publicity as officials try - largely unsuccessfully - to keep matters as low key as possible. The visiting group will not wear uniforms and will be told to carefully avoid US government buildings, meeting instead at the semi-official American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) office in Virginia. Of the several working meetings scheduled during the week, the first will be the most straightforward and important. Nothing short of the immediate future of Sino-US relations will be at stake - a cost made all the more severe given the on-going dispute over the collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off Hainan Island on April 1. A Pentagon official - senior, but not high enough to be considered ministerial level - will outline what arms the new administration of President George W. Bush has decided to sell Taiwan this year from a wish list handed over by Taipei last November. He will read from a brief set of points. There will be no negotiation and little actual discussion. 'It's a bit like the Academy Awards,' said one former Pentagon official familiar with the process. 'It is surprising how little is said. It really is a case of, 'And the nominees are . . .' By the time the meeting actually happens, all the talking and all the decision-making has been hammered out.' At that point, Taiwan will officially learn whether the US has finally agreed to sell it naval destroyers equipped with the state-of-the-art Aegis radar system - the most powerful battle-management device America has produced. With the ability to simultaneously track 100 targets - ships, planes and ballistic missiles - the Aegis would dramatically increase the island's ability to defend itself from mainland attack. It would also form a key part of any theatre-missile-defence system the US might want to create for Taiwan, carrying the potential to be linked to other systems in the region. Equally important, it also represents an unprecedented political symbol of America's desire to protect Taiwan - the glittering prize of Taipei's extensive, and expensive, US lobbying machine. No item reflects the intense diplomatic tango surrounding the Beijing-Washington-Taipei triangle better than the Aegis. Washington officially upholds the one-China policy, with Beijing at the centre. But its Taiwan Relations Act allows for an unofficial link through the AIT and, more importantly, allows for the US to equip Taiwan with the means to defend itself - all part of the fragile concept of 'strategic ambiguity'. And although the US might base its assessments of Taiwan's needs on the perceived China threat, the issue is not up for any sort of negotiation with Beijing. The tempo and passion of the dance have increased over the past decade as China's military expansion has awoken Taiwan's military from years of complacency as Beijing nervously eyes the flowering of Taiwanese democracy. The mainland leadership insists it wants reunification by peaceful means but threatens force in the face of independence - a move it sees as a loss of territory and an unpalatable encouragement to fledgling breakaway movements across China's western regions. Such is the perception of the Aegis threat that Beijing has added a few new moves to the dance over the past few months. Vice-Premier Qian Qichen publicly slammed any fresh arms sales during his recent mission to New York and Washington - the most powerful such visit in two years. Privately, he made clear to the new Bush team that Aegis was the 'red line' beyond which Mr Bush must not cross. 'It would change the essence of the issue from a peaceful approach to bring about reunification,' Mr Qian told a private meeting of some of America's most influential newspaper editors. When asked if he was hinting at a possible armed conflict, he said: 'It depends on the circumstances.' It was an interesting comment. Several defence analysts note that although the remark seems prohibitive, it has presented Mr Bush with an opportunity. He can now go ahead and grant other items on an extensive wish list, and although Beijing might scream and wail, only the Aegis threatens real significant, if not irreparable, harm to the wider relationship. For this and other strategic reasons, the Bush administration has been backing away from the Aegis in its internal discussions in recent weeks. Few analysts expect Mr Bush to approve it - despite the spy-plane stand-off and all the resulting pressure from the US Congress. 'Despite everything that has happened, I really do not believe the Bush administration wants a real rupture in the relationship,' said Derek Mitchell of the Centre for Strategic International Studies, a private Washington think tank. 'And the Aegis would be a real rupture . . . Beijing has made that very clear above all else. It would be a move we would have to take full responsibility for, and it is one our friends and allies in the region would not necessarily want to stay behind.' Some analysts, including some within the Bush administration, believe the Aegis is not so important militarily. They warn it is too costly for Taiwan - that the US$1.1 billion (about HK$8.5 billion) cost of each Arleigh-Burke destroyer would be much better spent broadening effectiveness elsewhere, that the technology is far too advanced for a military beset by institutional problems. Then there is a nagging strategic question. Even if approved this year, the Arleigh-Burkes could not be built and readied - intriguingly in Tennessee, the home state of Senate majority leader Trent Lott - before 2009. This would give eight years of pain to the relationship without the actual protection of the system. The long lead time has sparked calls for an unprecedented compromise in this year's deal - an idea given new currency by the events since April 1. A bureaucratic way could be found to include provisions for an extra four Arleigh-Burke destroyers in the US naval budget. They would then be built and funded under US military auspices but offered to Taiwan should the military situation deteriorate in the future. 'It is slightly unconventional but certainly workable,' said Larry Wortzel, an Asian specialist at Washington's conservative Heritage Foundation. 'I've been keen on it for a long time . . . the great thing is it shifts the argument. It means China is the one that has to watch its behaviour when it comes to the arms-sales question.' But even without the Aegis, Taiwan looks as if it will come out of next week's meeting a winner. The Bush team is almost certain to approve a package that would represent nothing less than the most extensive annual arms deal since former president George Bush authorised the sale of 150 F-16 fighters to Taiwan in 1992. Taipei is widely expected to be granted four Kidd-class destroyers, and there were reports in the Taiwan media yesterday that the US has also agreed, in principle, to supply eight diesel-powered submarines. The Kidd ships are already in existence, having been built 10 years ago for a foreign client but never delivered. Now part of the navy's Strategic Reserve, they are sitting in a port in the Pacific Northwest. Military analysts said they could be re-fitted and ready for Taiwan within about two years - not as an alternative to the Aegis ships but as an important improvement in their own right. They would form an ideal middle step to help Taiwan build a better command-and-control framework and to prepare for the Aegis technology. Some warn it is often forgotten just how backward much of Taiwan's naval fleet is. Although its air force boasts the firepower of the F-16s, the relatively puny naval fleet still comprises rusting World War II vessels - among them, its four submarines. The Guppy-class subs are coaxed into action by dedicated crews determined to keep them in stuttering operation. Slow, unable to dive deep and requiring extensive maintenance, they would be mincemeat for Beijing's advancing 71-strong submarine fleet. Taiwan's defences against this fleet, which now includes long-range Kilo-class submarines that routinely patrol Taiwan's east coast, could be boosted in the deal by more P-3 sub-hunting planes. Also up for consideration is a move to significantly boost the F-16s' defensive strength by dispatching 200 AIM-120C air-to-air missiles to the island. Such missiles formed the key part of the last package authorised by former president Bill Clinton. Allowing the F-16s to strike an enemy jet in the air from more than 50 kilometres away, the missiles are cutting-edge technology. Keen to avoid an arms race, Mr Clinton sold them to Taiwan on the proviso they be stored in the Arizona desert until China obtained similar weapons. US intelligence agencies believe that moment has now arrived. China has obtained R-77 missiles for its expanding fleet of crack Russian SU-27s, based outside Shanghai. Also in the package will possibly be anti-radiation missiles designed to smash land-based radars controlling enemy missiles, as well as more-simple devices, such as night-vision goggles and improved communications equipment. Some observers note that even with the very best deal, Taiwan might still struggle to defend itself against a rising China. Even the Aegis system could be overwhelmed by the 300 short-range ballistic missiles Beijing has pointing at the island from across the Taiwan Strait - an arsenal Washington claims is growing by 50 weapons a year. 'There is a lot more to this than just the glossy, flash items . . . so much of this is political,' one recently retired senior Pentagon official said. 'There is so much Taiwan could do for itself that is less sexy. It could pour a hell of a lot more concrete to protect its runways and military sites, along the lines of Israel. It could improve recruitment, training, and communication and command systems . . . all basic, very important stuff that, frankly, has been neglected for too long. And even the best deal might not get them very far . . . the real solution is in the diplomatic arena over the long term.' Even so, the Taiwan delegation is likely to arrive in Washington confident of a history-making deal - even without the Aegis - at a crucial juncture in Mr Bush's fledgling relationship with Beijing. 'From Taiwan's standpoint, they really can't lose,' said the former official. 'They are going to get plenty of new toys. This administration will do them well . . . that is quite clear. Let us just hope that will be the same for everybody else in the relationship.' Greg Torode ( torode@scmp.com ) is the Washington correspondent
