You may remember that day of doom back in July 1997, when the Thai Government withdrew its defences of the baht, sending it collapsing and sparking off the Asian financial crisis.
We are unlikely to see the same drastic results if the Malaysian Government now decides that it can no longer rig the ringgit at M$3.80 to the United States dollar but it is still likely to bring a nasty shock to the region should it happen. The chances of it doing so are rising.
First, the use of the word 'rig' is deliberate. The Malaysian currency peg to the US dollar has none of the internal disciplines of our currency board system in Hong Kong and is, in fact, just the sort of currency manipulation that led to the crisis in 1997.
The superficial reason for expecting it to collapse, as the first chart shows, is that if the ringgit's exchange value had followed the currencies of other member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations since the beginning of last year it would now be worth less than M$5 to the US dollar. This is not sufficient reason, however.
There is a more fundamental reason why that M$3.80 rig is in trouble and the second chart on Malaysia's balance of payments shows you what it could be.
The red line on top represents the balance on trade in goods as a percentage of gross domestic product. The actual figures run only up to September last year but the figures for the subsequent two quarters can easily be estimated from monthly trade figures and, at more than 20 per cent of GDP, are very high.
You would have thought this enough to cushion Malaysia from any balance of payments shock but it turns out not to be so. The overall balance of payments figure shows a growing deficit and, once again, the last two quarters can easily be estimated from published figures on changes in foreign reserves. They indicate on the green line an overall deficit running at 12 per cent of the first quarter's GDP.