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Vaudine England

A meeting between political leaders and Abdurrahman Wahid set for today will probably fail, making the embattled President appear weaker than ever.

But the business of reaching a compromise is going on regardless - behind closed doors.

'The presidency is up for auction,' said a former Golkar party member. 'Large amounts of money are moving, which doesn't necessarily mean that people will vote for who's paying them. But it leaves the odds at 50-50 that Mr Wahid will keep his job.'

The source, who is close to members of Parliament and the ruling elite, said Mr Wahid was prepared to pay billions of rupiah to lure politicians.

Opportunistic business figures are providing the cash, the source said, and the amounts can easily be matched by figures close to Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Mr Wahid and Ms Megawati deny ever paying bribes to get ahead.

But with an impeachment hearing due in the 700-seat People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) on August 1, garnering numbers in the house is the top political priority.

Even the rise of this year's death toll in Aceh to more than 1,000 people has been ignored. Military-backed police and local militias are hammering independence fighters in Aceh, killing civilians in the process.

But the issue has been largely ignored as politicians decide which way to go.

'Few people in town now want to be seen publicly associated with a president who could be out of office in a month,' a diplomat said. 'But that doesn't mean they're not talking to him on the side.'

The bribery will be influenced by whether the vote over Mr Wahid's future will be a secret or public ballot.

Pressure is on for an open vote, to nullify the vote-buying. But some analysts argue that the willingness of politicians to accept cash on the side makes it in everyone's interest to have a secret poll.

The belief in some quarters that Mr Wahid still has cards to play is affecting political calculations.

'What can he do? He can choose to give his mandate back to the MPR, which would effectively be a call for early elections,' a member of Parliament said. 'And a new election would take a year to organise, getting him through his current crisis.'

An early poll should require the assent of Parliament, but the rules have been stretched in the absence of a clear constitution and the rule of law.

'Everyone needs money and, of course, every side can play the same game. MPR members can take money from everywhere. So if they're going to renege on any pay-off deal, they will want a secret vote too,' the former Golkar member said.

With so much room for bribery, it has become increasingly difficult to predict events.

Mutual blackmail would appear to be a way of life if the insights of some parliamentarians are true. They suggest that some people are forced out of cabinet or back into it according to debts or revelations of deals.

They also argue that some caucuses within Parliament, such as the Iramasuka group of eastern Indonesian politicians, are more likely to support Mr Wahid as a better bet for getting senior positions for their own.

Such matters are of more personal importance to the players in this drama than whether or not a public meeting of party leaders is held today.

The meeting has already been postponed several times and most parties are distancing themselves from Mr Wahid as much as possible.



Presidency 'up for auction' as vote approaches