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Vaudine England

The only question left in Jakarta's political circles is not whether President Abdurrahman Wahid will have to leave the palace, but when and how he will do so.

'It is very difficult to dismiss Gus Dur,' said Harold Crouch, head of the International Crisis Group office in Jakarta.

'But it is very hard to see what he can do. He must be realising that the option of declaring a state of emergency is not there.

'The most likely scenario is that he'll stay in the palace and there will be two people claiming to be president.

'It's just that one of those claimants will have the support of Parliament, the armed forces, the police and much of the populace and the other will not.'

He and other analysts agree that while the outcome of a year-long political struggle now seems clear - that Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri will take power this week - the procedures and legal basis of the process remain hazy at best.

'Whatever he is doing, Wahid is finished. But Wahid will refuse to go and he will be a very lonely man at the palace,' said political analyst Marcus Mietzner.

Some observers had argued there was still room for a face-saving compromise, which could delegate power to Ms Megawati but leave Mr Wahid with the title of president.

But events of the past two days have persuaded analysts to give up on the man once seen as the best hope of bringing reform to a country long served badly by its leaders. 'On both sides, the doors to a compromise are now closed,' Mr Mietzner said.

This has come about because no matter how much Mr Wahid has spoken of his desire for a deal, the level of mistrust is so high that key players don't believe him.

Instead of making concessions on Friday, for example, Mr Wahid went ahead and installed a new police chief against Parliament's wishes, claiming House of Representatives chairman Akbar Tandjung supported his appointment of Chaerudin Ismail.

This forced Mr Tandjung into embarrassing denials. Far from supporting Mr Wahid, Mr Tandjung's aides say he only said the House was in recess and could not express a view.

'Wahid did what he often does and lied about a phone conversation, and this is exactly what to do if you want to finally turn away the few figures still flexible enough to broker a deal,' noted Mr Mietzner.

Mr Wahid's actions fuelled the final provocation for Ms Megawati to support Parliament's acceleration of impeachment proceedings, analysts believe.

'[Peoples' Consultative Assembly, MPR chairman] Amien Rais could not have called the earlier special session without Megawati's support. Her husband, Taufik Kiemas, met Amien Rais during the course of Friday and heard that support, so he could go ahead,' a source confirmed.

Once the special hearing opened yesterday and an overwhelming majority voted for early impeachment, Mr Wahid's days were numbered. Mr Wahid can claim the moves against him are unconstitutional and many of his arguments have weight. But Mr Crouch said the problem was not so much that this was blatantly against the rules but that the rules themselves were vague, misleading and confusing.

Until yesterday's MPR meeting, both Mr Tandjung, who is also the Golkar party chief, and United Development Party (PPP) chairman Hamzah Haz appeared ready to make a deal with Mr Wahid. But at the meeting, the speeches of both Golkar and PPP were uncompromising.

Time is now running out, analysts agree. Even if Mr Wahid defies the MPR's likely impeachment this week and refuses to leave the palace, observers say Ms Megawati will let him stay there and simply run the Government from her own offices.

'It's becoming very predictable now, as even the opportunists are jumping ship. Everyone now wants to associate with the likely winner,' a diplomat said.

What remains unclear is how much support Mr Wahid could garner in street actions. An answer to that may be found at today's meeting of 5,000 Muslim leaders from the Nahdlatul Ulama organisation, which has supported Mr Wahid so far.

The 30-million strong organisation, once chaired by Mr Wahid, may offer only lukewarm protests at his impending dismissal, diminishing chances of mass unrest.

'Wahid is not the sort of man to start a civil war. But he's not allowing himself a graceful exit,' Mr Crouch said.



All over bar the shouting for 'Gus Dur'